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Aaron Derfel

26 Oct, 10 tweets, 5 min read

1) Has Montreal already experienced the worst of the second wave? Is it even fair to ask this question with #COVID19 still surging in the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches? In this thread, I will nonetheless attempt to provide a nuanced response.

2) Montreal on Sunday posted its lowest daily tally in 33 days, 146 new #COVID19 cases, as the descending orange line in the chart below shows. The city’s seven-day average was down to 112.48 cases per million population compared with a rate of 126.32 a week ago.

3) At the neighborhood level, Montreal’s #COVID19 hotspot in the second wave — the centre of the city, including Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc-Extension — posted fewer than eight cases, while the West Island health district of Pierrefonds-Lac Saint-Louis identified far more.

4) Meanwhile, the number of Montreal schools that have declared at least one #COVID19 case decreased to 127 on Saturday from 141 a week ago, according to the latest weekly report by the ever-reliable covidecolesquebec.org. Estimated cases dropped to 290 from 453.

5) Hospitalizations for #COVID19 also appeared to be on the decline in Montreal, even though they’re up in other regions of the province. The #pandemic death toll in the city stands at 3,515, one fewer than the number on Oct. 20, after a revision two days later.

6) And yet the picture is far more complicated than the figures above imply. The number of #COVID19 outbreaks has been expanding in the workplace, as the Montreal public health department confirmed last Wednesday. On Friday, a cluster hit four ER staff at Santa Cabrini Hospital.

7) The #coronavirus is still very much present all over the city in a way that it wasn’t in the first wave, when it rampaged mostly through long-term care centres (CHSLDs). And on Sunday, it was still causing outbreaks in four city CHSLDs, infecting no fewer than 37 people.

8) The public must realize the progress made in Montreal in the second wave is fragile. The situation is still highly unstable, even after the Quebec government belatedly imposed a partial lockdown on Oct. 1. Imagine what the situation might have been without those restrictions?

9) At the same time, nurses forced to work double shifts at the peril to their safety are angry and exhausted. How long can they keep this up? In the Gaspésie, the local health authority announced a #COVID19 outbreak at the hospital in Chandler, with five staff testing positive.

10) And as I tweeted about Saturday, Quebec's #COVID19 death toll in October is already higher than the three previous months combined. If anything, the latest numbers in the metropolis and in the regions reinforce the necessity to maintain the partial lockdown. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

27 Oct

1) Three weeks after Quebec required high school students to wear masks all day in red zones, Premier François Legault announced Monday Grade 9 students will join those in Grades 10 and 11 in learning online at home one out of two days. In this thread, I'll examine this measure.

2) Legault held his news conference at 5 p.m. after the Education Ministry released its latest statistics revealing 52 more #COVID19 cases in schools since Friday, 11 more shuttered classes and three more schools with confirmed infections. See the chart below.

3) For its part, covidecolesquebec.org reported Monday night 32 more schools with at least one positive case among students or staff since Sunday. After the number of #COVID19 cases in schools dropped a week ago, the latest figures appear to indicate an upswing.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Oct

1) With less than a week left before the month's end, Quebec posted on Saturday more #COVID19 deaths in October (259) than the previous three months combined (229), underscoring the lethality of the #pandemic’s second wave. In this thread, I'll examine fatalities by age group.

2) First, let me emphasize that any life cut short because of #COVID19 — whatever the age — is a death that should have been prevented and is therefore tragic. But in my analysis of the data I’ve come across some noteworthy findings, which I believe are worth sharing.

3) There’s an age group that is gaining in its share of the total number of #pandemic deaths: people in their 70s. Two months ago, the 70-to-79 demographic comprised 17.9% of all such deaths. On Saturday, that share crept up to 18.2% — or 15 more deaths and 1,115 in total.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Oct

1) Has the emergency room of Santa Cabrini Hospital become the canary in the #COVID19 mine in Montreal? On Friday, the east-end hospital urged people to avoid going to its ER following an outbreak among four staff. In this thread, I will concentrate on the city’s ER predicament.

2) During the #pandemic's first wave, Montreal’s ERs were eerily quiet as people stayed away in droves. But during the second wave, that's no longer the case. Santa Cabrini’s ER was still filled to beyond capacity Friday night despite its public appeal for people to stay away.

3) City ERs are treating more walk-in patients with #COVID19. It’s not a high number, but there are cases. And with congested ERs, it becomes harder to separate infected patients from those who aren’t. What’s concerning about Santa Cabrini's cluster is it occurred among ER staff.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Oct

1) Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that's higher than the tallies of Greece (28,216) and Hong Kong (5,281) combined. In this thread, I'll try to show how the #pandemic is wreaking havoc not only in the city but more so across Quebec.

2) Premier François Legault was more somber than he's been in days reporting the addition of 20 #COVID19 fatalities to Quebec’s toll of 6,094. The chart below shows 10 deaths in the past 24 hours at the CHSLD St-Augustin in Beauport, an eldercare home I wrote about yesterday.

3) It appears that the talk of how Quebec’s long-term care centres (CHSLDs) may have been spared during the #pandemic's second wave is premature, given that Health Minister Christian Dubé has dispatched so-called SWAT teams to four CHSLDs to contain their #COVID19 outbreaks.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

22 Oct

1) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal has risen to more than 200 from 130 two weeks ago, the city’s public health director disclosed Wednesday. Hospitalizations are up by almost 9%. Nonetheless, Dr. Mylène Drouin said the city is progressing in the right direction.

2) On Oct. 7, Drouin noted that 40 schools had outbreaks. On Wednesday, that number had grown to 73. Two weeks ago, there were #COVID19 clusters in 50 workplace settings. On Wednesday, that number climbed to 70 and up by two from the day before.

3) A total of 129 people was hospitalized for #COVID in Montreal on Oct. 7, of whom 25 were in intensive care. By Wednesday, those numbers inched up to 140 and 36, respectively. Such figures are far from overwhelming the health system, but are they moving in the right direction?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

21 Oct

1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s partial lockdown, the number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal grew to 68 on Tuesday from 65 a week earlier. In this thread, I will delve into how the #coronavirus is spreading into an expanding number of businesses.

2) First, it appears the decision to shut bars and restaurants has paid off in the metropolis, with the latest chart by the Montreal public health department showing a drop of five #COVID19 outbreaks in such businesses, along with hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies.

3) On the other hand, the #coronavirus has caused three #COVID19 clusters in the chemical industry, including possibly in pharmaceutical plants. Other businesses that have declared outbreaks since last week involve rubber and plastics products, construction, textiles and retail.

Read 10 tweets

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