1) With less than a week left before the month's end, Quebec posted on Saturday more #COVID19 deaths in October (259) than the previous three months combined (229), underscoring the lethality of the #pandemic’s second wave. In this thread, I'll examine fatalities by age group.
2) First, let me emphasize that any life cut short because of #COVID19 — whatever the age — is a death that should have been prevented and is therefore tragic. But in my analysis of the data I’ve come across some noteworthy findings, which I believe are worth sharing.
3) There’s an age group that is gaining in its share of the total number of #pandemic deaths: people in their 70s. Two months ago, the 70-to-79 demographic comprised 17.9% of all such deaths. On Saturday, that share crept up to 18.2% — or 15 more deaths and 1,115 in total.
4) In the past two months, four people in their 40s died in the #pandemic, raising the death toll in the group to 24 in Quebec. This cohort’s share of the total number of fatalities inched up to 0.4% from 0.3%. In contrast, the 90-plus group saw its share dip to 33.2% from 33.6%.
5) Although more Quebec women overall continue to die from #COVID19 than men, that percentage declined to 54.7% from 54.9% two months ago. This dovetails with what I've learned from Montreal’s Jewish General Hospital that more men are being hospitalized during the second wave.
6) These are all subtle, almost imperceptible changes, but they do illustrate that the #pandemic is evolving in Quebec. What hasn’t changed, though, is that most #COVID19 deaths are occurring in people in their 80s, who’ve accounted for 2,464 of the province’s 6,132 deaths.
7) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 253 #COVID19 cases Saturday, up from 237 the day before. Please see the chart below. The city’s seven-day average decreased to 118.59 cases per million population, still high enough for Montreal to remain in the red zone for the foreseeable future.
8) At the neighborhood level, the east end of the metropolis posted nearly double the number of #COVID19 cases than the West Island, a trend since the start of the second wave. Another trend is the centre of the city continuing to record the highest number of infections.
9) As most of us have come to learn, #COVID19 deaths are a lagging indicator of hospitalizations, which are a lagging indicator of confirmed cases. And on Saturday, Quebec added another 1,009 cases and nine more hospitalizations. End of thread. Please stay safe everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

26 Oct
1) Has Montreal already experienced the worst of the second wave? Is it even fair to ask this question with #COVID19 still surging in the Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches? In this thread, I will nonetheless attempt to provide a nuanced response.
2) Montreal on Sunday posted its lowest daily tally in 33 days, 146 new #COVID19 cases, as the descending orange line in the chart below shows. The city’s seven-day average was down to 112.48 cases per million population compared with a rate of 126.32 a week ago. Image
3) At the neighborhood level, Montreal’s #COVID19 hotspot in the second wave — the centre of the city, including Côte-des-Neiges, downtown and Parc-Extension — posted fewer than eight cases, while the West Island health district of Pierrefonds-Lac Saint-Louis identified far more. Image
Read 10 tweets
24 Oct
1) Has the emergency room of Santa Cabrini Hospital become the canary in the #COVID19 mine in Montreal? On Friday, the east-end hospital urged people to avoid going to its ER following an outbreak among four staff. In this thread, I will concentrate on the city’s ER predicament. Image
2) During the #pandemic's first wave, Montreal’s ERs were eerily quiet as people stayed away in droves. But during the second wave, that's no longer the case. Santa Cabrini’s ER was still filled to beyond capacity Friday night despite its public appeal for people to stay away. Image
3) City ERs are treating more walk-in patients with #COVID19. It’s not a high number, but there are cases. And with congested ERs, it becomes harder to separate infected patients from those who aren’t. What’s concerning about Santa Cabrini's cluster is it occurred among ER staff.
Read 10 tweets
23 Oct
1) Montreal crossed the threshold of 40,000 #COVID19 cases Thursday, a number that's higher than the tallies of Greece (28,216) and Hong Kong (5,281) combined. In this thread, I'll try to show how the #pandemic is wreaking havoc not only in the city but more so across Quebec.
2) Premier François Legault was more somber than he's been in days reporting the addition of 20 #COVID19 fatalities to Quebec’s toll of 6,094. The chart below shows 10 deaths in the past 24 hours at the CHSLD St-Augustin in Beauport, an eldercare home I wrote about yesterday.
3) It appears that the talk of how Quebec’s long-term care centres (CHSLDs) may have been spared during the #pandemic's second wave is premature, given that Health Minister Christian Dubé has dispatched so-called SWAT teams to four CHSLDs to contain their #COVID19 outbreaks.
Read 10 tweets
22 Oct
1) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal has risen to more than 200 from 130 two weeks ago, the city’s public health director disclosed Wednesday. Hospitalizations are up by almost 9%. Nonetheless, Dr. Mylène Drouin said the city is progressing in the right direction.
2) On Oct. 7, Drouin noted that 40 schools had outbreaks. On Wednesday, that number had grown to 73. Two weeks ago, there were #COVID19 clusters in 50 workplace settings. On Wednesday, that number climbed to 70 and up by two from the day before.
3) A total of 129 people was hospitalized for #COVID in Montreal on Oct. 7, of whom 25 were in intensive care. By Wednesday, those numbers inched up to 140 and 36, respectively. Such figures are far from overwhelming the health system, but are they moving in the right direction?
Read 10 tweets
21 Oct
1) Nearly three weeks into Quebec’s partial lockdown, the number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal grew to 68 on Tuesday from 65 a week earlier. In this thread, I will delve into how the #coronavirus is spreading into an expanding number of businesses.
2) First, it appears the decision to shut bars and restaurants has paid off in the metropolis, with the latest chart by the Montreal public health department showing a drop of five #COVID19 outbreaks in such businesses, along with hotels, motels and temporary employment agencies.
3) On the other hand, the #coronavirus has caused three #COVID19 clusters in the chemical industry, including possibly in pharmaceutical plants. Other businesses that have declared outbreaks since last week involve rubber and plastics products, construction, textiles and retail.
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
1) Nearly two weeks after Montreal public health officials disclosed a major #COVID19 outbreak at a seniors’ residence on Sherbrooke St. E., this cluster of cases still hasn’t appeared in the government’s daily updates. In this thread, I will note this is not the only omission.
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, of the health department, had confirmed that the outbreak at Les Résidences Soleil Manoir Plaza infected 28, hospitalized six and killed one. However, only three cases are currently listed at the seniors’ facility and no deaths, according to Monday’s update.
3) Lest anyone dismiss this as an isolated incident, credit goes to Radio-Canada’s @ThomasGerbet for exposing information gaffes involving at least six other seniors’ residences and long-term care centres. Two outbreaks were absent from the updates. ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/17422…
Read 9 tweets

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