1/4
Another record day on both sides in FL: Republicans took a huge chunk (56,370) out of the Dems early/absentee vote margin but the Dem lead is still huge & historic (245,912)

The race is tightening.

So how does it compare to 2016?
2/4 In 2016, Rs & Ds were about tied at this point, w/Ds gaining in EVAB.

On Election Day, Dems had a 90k lead in EVAB ballots over GOP

When those votes were tabulated, Clinton won them w/a 247k margin

But Trump won Election Day with 361k more votes & carried the state by 113k
3/4
This is a reminder that all D votes don't=Biden nor R votes=Trump but they *sort of* cancel each other out. Indies lean Biden in most polls, but by how much?

Lots of voting left.
4/4

FL's at 6.9m ballots as of this a.m. of 14.4m registered voters.

About 2.6m Rs have voted (38%; 2.8m Dems (41%) and 1.5m indies (21%)

Republicans are burning through more high-propensity voters but have far more left than Dems.

Prior threads here

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More from @MarcACaputo

27 Oct
According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false

The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running.

The election is in a week.
2/7 Since this is getting some attention, a little background here: Trump’s campaign has had a very active ad-buying strategy that looks almost erratic to everyone else. As a result, when I saw he was allegedly going dark, it made 0 sense (unless it was an intentional head fake)
3/7

But my Twitter avatar is Doubting Thomas for a reason and I know that guesses are a bad way to conduct reporting. So I asked Ad Analytics and this was the response
Read 9 tweets
27 Oct
Tweet 1 of 4
FL GOP had a big day in the Early Vote & Absentee Ballot wars when they reduced the Democrats' margin by the biggest amount yet, 52,373

Ds still have a huge & historic margin as of this am's report: 302,282

Sat. story told you it was coming
politi.co/31VOE7d
2/4

In all, 6.4m have voted in FL of 14.4m registereds.

If turnout=75%, then 60% of the total vote is in

If 75% of the electorate votes EVAB, then 79% of EVAB is in.

Here's what's been happening to the Ds margin now that Rs are heading to EV
politi.co/31VOE7d
3/4

Here's Saturday's story (again) where we get into some of the complexities about counted ballots v. tabulated votes & independents
politi.co/31VOE7d

Here's a prior Twitter thread as well.

Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
Tweet 1/8 In a warning sign for the GOP, Democrats have opened up a big lead in early voting in the 6 core battleground states, turning out more base, low-frequency & newly registered voters than Republicans

But there are 11 days to go

w/@ZachMontellaro
politi.co/31zCG2M
2/8 Before we get into the snapshots of the states, 2 disclaimers

1) This analysis was performed for Politico by Hawkfish, a new Dem data firm & was independently reviewed by Republicans & 2 profs

2) The election ain’t over. We’re not forecasting

politi.co/31zCG2M
3/8

ARIZONA

Total ballots cast so far: 1.1m for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58%. Trump: 42%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 75k. Biden: 57% percent. Trump: 43

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 41,000. Biden: 54%. Trump: 46%
politi.co/31zCG2M
Read 8 tweets
23 Oct
Biden just brought up Giuliani, which now introduces the entire topic of Hunter to the debate
And Trump brings it up but he doesn’t do it clearly.
And now Biden is turning the discussion to Trump’s refusal to release his taxes: “Russia’s paying you a lot. China’s paying your a lot.”

If Trump was planning to bear Biden up over Hunter, this ain’t it
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
What do the swing states look like today? My colleagues and I (who live in or have roots in and around each) give you a tour of AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, MN, PA and WI

Tweet 1 of 10
2. Once crimson-red, Arizona looks as if it could seriously go blue

via @lbarronlopez politi.co/34YdaVD
3. Florida gonna Florida

by me politi.co/3lPy2p9
Read 10 tweets
14 Oct
We have 67 counties in Florida, but since presidential campaigns are marketing campaigns that orient spending by media market, here's a comparison of the past three presidential election results broken down by media market (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)

Tweet 1 of X
2 of X

Let's drill down on 2016 vs. the other elections, especially by looking at the I-4 corridor (Tampa and Orlando) compared first to 2008

Notice how Obama 2008 won it and the difference with Trump 2016
3 of 3

Look at Tampa v Miami

In Miami, Clinton’s '16 margin was 3 points bigger than Obama '12. Clinton won it by 579,583 ballots. Obama: 472,840

In Tampa, Trump's margin 7 points bigger than Romney's over Obama. Trump won it by 190,281 ballots. Romney: 38,811
Read 4 tweets

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