1/4
Another record day on both sides in FL: Republicans took a huge chunk (56,370) out of the Dems early/absentee vote margin but the Dem lead is still huge & historic (245,912)
The race is tightening.
So how does it compare to 2016?
2/4 In 2016, Rs & Ds were about tied at this point, w/Ds gaining in EVAB.
On Election Day, Dems had a 90k lead in EVAB ballots over GOP
When those votes were tabulated, Clinton won them w/a 247k margin
But Trump won Election Day with 361k more votes & carried the state by 113k
3/4 This is a reminder that all D votes don't=Biden nor R votes=Trump but they *sort of* cancel each other out. Indies lean Biden in most polls, but by how much?
Lots of voting left.
4/4
FL's at 6.9m ballots as of this a.m. of 14.4m registered voters.
About 2.6m Rs have voted (38%; 2.8m Dems (41%) and 1.5m indies (21%)
Republicans are burning through more high-propensity voters but have far more left than Dems.
Prior threads here
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According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false
The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running.
The election is in a week.
2/7 Since this is getting some attention, a little background here: Trump’s campaign has had a very active ad-buying strategy that looks almost erratic to everyone else. As a result, when I saw he was allegedly going dark, it made 0 sense (unless it was an intentional head fake)
3/7
But my Twitter avatar is Doubting Thomas for a reason and I know that guesses are a bad way to conduct reporting. So I asked Ad Analytics and this was the response
Tweet 1/8 In a warning sign for the GOP, Democrats have opened up a big lead in early voting in the 6 core battleground states, turning out more base, low-frequency & newly registered voters than Republicans
What do the swing states look like today? My colleagues and I (who live in or have roots in and around each) give you a tour of AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, MN, PA and WI
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2. Once crimson-red, Arizona looks as if it could seriously go blue
We have 67 counties in Florida, but since presidential campaigns are marketing campaigns that orient spending by media market, here's a comparison of the past three presidential election results broken down by media market (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)
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Let's drill down on 2016 vs. the other elections, especially by looking at the I-4 corridor (Tampa and Orlando) compared first to 2008
Notice how Obama 2008 won it and the difference with Trump 2016
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Look at Tampa v Miami
In Miami, Clinton’s '16 margin was 3 points bigger than Obama '12. Clinton won it by 579,583 ballots. Obama: 472,840
In Tampa, Trump's margin 7 points bigger than Romney's over Obama. Trump won it by 190,281 ballots. Romney: 38,811