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23 Oct, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Tweet 1/8 In a warning sign for the GOP, Democrats have opened up a big lead in early voting in the 6 core battleground states, turning out more base, low-frequency & newly registered voters than Republicans

But there are 11 days to go

w/@ZachMontellaro
politi.co/31zCG2M
2/8 Before we get into the snapshots of the states, 2 disclaimers

1) This analysis was performed for Politico by Hawkfish, a new Dem data firm & was independently reviewed by Republicans & 2 profs

2) The election ain’t over. We’re not forecasting

politi.co/31zCG2M
3/8
ARIZONA

Total ballots cast so far: 1.1m for which Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 58%. Trump: 42%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 75k. Biden: 57% percent. Trump: 43

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 41,000. Biden: 54%. Trump: 46%
politi.co/31zCG2M
4/8
FLORIDA

Total ballots cast: 4.2m for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56% Trump: 44%.

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422k. Biden: 55%. Trump: 45%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53%. Trump: 47%

politi.co/31zCG2M
5/8
MICHIGAN

Total ballots cast: 1.8 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 62%. Trump: 38%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 139k. Biden: 63% Trump: 37%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 96k. Biden: 53%. Trump 47%

politi.co/31zCG2M
6/8

NORTH CAROLINA

Total ballots cast: 2.1 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 57%. Trump: 43%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 148k. Biden: 60% Trump: 40%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 61k. Biden: 51%. Trump: 49%

politi.co/31zCG2M
7/8
PENNSYLVANIA

Total ballots cast: 1.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 73% Trump: 27%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 57k. Biden: 72%. Trump: 28%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 88k. Biden: 64%. Trump: 36%

politi.co/31zCG2M
8/8
WISCONSIN

Total ballots cast: 844k for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 61%. Trump: 39%

Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 66k. Biden: 61% Trump: 39%

Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 10k. Biden: 53%. Trump: 47%

politi.co/31zCG2M

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More from @MarcACaputo

Marc Caputo Profile picture
23 Oct
Biden just brought up Giuliani, which now introduces the entire topic of Hunter to the debate
And Trump brings it up but he doesn’t do it clearly.
And now Biden is turning the discussion to Trump’s refusal to release his taxes: “Russia’s paying you a lot. China’s paying your a lot.”

If Trump was planning to bear Biden up over Hunter, this ain’t it
Read 5 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
14 Oct
What do the swing states look like today? My colleagues and I (who live in or have roots in and around each) give you a tour of AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, MN, PA and WI

Tweet 1 of 10
2. Once crimson-red, Arizona looks as if it could seriously go blue

via @lbarronlopez politi.co/34YdaVD
3. Florida gonna Florida

by me politi.co/3lPy2p9
Read 10 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
14 Oct
We have 67 counties in Florida, but since presidential campaigns are marketing campaigns that orient spending by media market, here's a comparison of the past three presidential election results broken down by media market (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)

Tweet 1 of X
2 of X

Let's drill down on 2016 vs. the other elections, especially by looking at the I-4 corridor (Tampa and Orlando) compared first to 2008

Notice how Obama 2008 won it and the difference with Trump 2016
3 of 3

Look at Tampa v Miami

In Miami, Clinton’s '16 margin was 3 points bigger than Obama '12. Clinton won it by 579,583 ballots. Obama: 472,840

In Tampa, Trump's margin 7 points bigger than Romney's over Obama. Trump won it by 190,281 ballots. Romney: 38,811
Read 4 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
14 Oct
As President Trump demonized mail-in voting, FL Dems pushed its base to vote as early as possible

The result: Ds have a historic 384k lead over Rs in absentee ballots cast

The GOP’s planning to swamp the polls @ in-person early voting & Election Day 1/x

politi.co/373BB6N
Though the Democrats’ 905k-521k lead is big, Republicans have about 400k more high-propensity voters in reserve

Those voters came in handy in 2016 when Clinton led by 247k pre-Election Day votes but so many Trump voters showed that she lost by nearly 113k
politi.co/373BB6N
On the other hand, Ds say this time they’re turning out more low-propensity and first-time voters as well, and that the 20% of independents who have voted so far look more like Democratic voters than Republicans.

So stay tuned. The numbers will change politi.co/373BB6N
Read 6 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
6 Oct
We often talk of a race “tightening” but is it fair to say it’s “loosening” in states like PA?

politi.co/2GKYrVW
Looks looser
Florida Lol
Read 4 tweets
Marc Caputo Profile picture
23 Sep
FL state Sen @JoeGruters & GOP chair to me: “It’s idiotic.”

I asked him if he would have pro-Trump electors declare him the winner even if Biden carried Florida & he said “no.” Asked again, he said “No. We would not do that”
Incoming Florida House Speaker @ChrisSprowls was sent the tweet in question about electors & told my colleague @Mdixon55: “no. Because it is totally crazy. We are fresh out of tin hats.”
A spokeswoman for incoming Florida Senate President @WiltonSimpson similarly denied this claim, referencing statute 103.011 says electors are bound by the actual election results 👇 bit.ly/304Dw6R
Read 4 tweets

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