Thread by @jnordvig

Europe COVID. This week perceptions, and policies changed.

Over the last few weeks, our models have been predicting a significant increase in COVID deaths by end-October

Most though the forecast were alarmist. But the reality is that they have been too low...

Back in mid-October, we predicted a spike to above 500 over the coming 2 weeks...

But the realized numbers are already well above that now.

https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1316499795381542913

France is already trending at 250 deaths per day

Belgium is heading fast to above 100/day

Spain is at 150 deaths/day, although growing less exponentially

Italy is also at 150 deaths/day, and growing faster

In Germany, the level has been less problematic, with the trend just around 50/day still, but growing fast

The Netherlands (with much less population) is also at 50 deaths/day

Just the 6 largest Eurozone countries now have around 750 deaths/day & the trend is deteriorating fast. Given how rapid case growth has been recently, it is unfortunately a given that deaths numbers will increase notably over the next 2-4 weeks before policy measures kick in

The question is whether a French lockdown (dramatic stay at home guidance) or the German version (cutting out super-spreader events) is the way forward. What policy is tough enough in colder weather? This will determine the path of the virus, and the path for the economy.

Markets have taken the 2nd wave seriously this week, but it is still very unclear how long and how severe this wave will be. Hence, evaluating Rt etc in coming days/weeks is key.

And then we also have to think about whether colder temperatures, which tend to come to the US a bit later than Europe, will have an effect there, with a lag.

I will leave it at that. Tough times. END