Spain is at 150 deaths/day, although growing less exponentially
Italy is also at 150 deaths/day, and growing faster
In Germany, the level has been less problematic, with the trend just around 50/day still, but growing fast
The Netherlands (with much less population) is also at 50 deaths/day
Just the 6 largest Eurozone countries now have around 750 deaths/day & the trend is deteriorating fast. Given how rapid case growth has been recently, it is unfortunately a given that deaths numbers will increase notably over the next 2-4 weeks before policy measures kick in
The question is whether a French lockdown (dramatic stay at home guidance) or the German version (cutting out super-spreader events) is the way forward. What policy is tough enough in colder weather? This will determine the path of the virus, and the path for the economy.
Markets have taken the 2nd wave seriously this week, but it is still very unclear how long and how severe this wave will be. Hence, evaluating Rt etc in coming days/weeks is key.
And then we also have to think about whether colder temperatures, which tend to come to the US a bit later than Europe, will have an effect there, with a lag.
I will leave it at that. Tough times. END
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The WSJ has a good overview of the record number of US COVID cases recorded in the latest daily data. They discuss the various factors contributing. But they do not mention weather/temperature. I think that is a mistake... @JenCalfas@bysarahkrouse
There is a big debate about the European 2nd wave, and whether it is serious or not. And it is surely hard to look at cases alone, since the testing quantity is totally different. I think looking at the dynamic CFRs is very informative....
= mini-THREAD
The table here shows Case Fatality Rates over time for several European countries, using recent deaths vs lagged cases.
It shows that you cannot really talk about severity in a uniform sense.
Some countries, such as France, Finland, Sweden, Norway an Denmark have stable an very low fatality rates (<1%) even with cases ticking up.
I will do what everybody knows is very dangerous on twitter: comment on Sweden...
Cases have accelerated sharply over the last few weeks, from 200/day to 700/day (could have broader implications, with weather possibly a key variable = THREAD).
I am not trying to be alarmist, very few people seem to be getting seriously ill, as evidenced by low ICU admissions (although there is a slight uptick, and obviously lags at play)
But it raises the question. WHY? (are cases spiking)
Sweden has been 'open' for a while (that is the reason everybody is so focused on Sweden's alternative model)
Relatedly, mobility indicators have been pretty stable over the last few months.
I started using twitter in earnest this year, and today I reached 10K followers. I do not know all of you personally, but I do know many of you professionally, and I really respect your views/input/content etc. Some observations on twitter in general (=THREAD)
I used to be skeptical of twitter. In part because I wanted to keep research content for my clients only, and because some of the stuff I look at is very niche. But then came the COVID shock, and suddenly everybody was interested & there was a lot of new/important data to crunch
The COVID shock showed the power of data, to a huge audience. I had to express my views in public, especially back in Q1, when there were so many basic misunderstandings.
Lots of focus on Nov 3, and how the world may change after that day. But what we do know is that WFH, or at least a hybrid model, will be with us well beyond the election day. So we do need to plan… (= THREAD)
As I mentioned in previous thread, the initial excitement about wfh being possible, and in some narrow areas even an advantage, is giving way to a form of fatigue, reduced motivation, and a test to social networking / teamwork structures, over time.
Hence, we have been thinking hard about what can be done (in the context of managing @ExanteData) to ‘stay sane’ and avoid the most obvious pitfalls of working from home in the longer-run. Three main points on this....
The most important chart of 2020 continues to evolve. We had the incredible situation that incomes spiked in a depression, because government transfers were so big. Now that transfers are declining, incomes are coming down, but spending is still on an uptrend via past savings.
This is why the fiscal stimulus debate remains the hottest issue of the day, as well as more strategically. The cut in Federal unemployment subsidies are feeding directly into this. So that piece is key, although maybe the aid for states is what the negotiation is more focused on
2020 is not like any other year. The aggressiveness of fiscal policy, in the US and globally, is different. And the interplay between fiscal policy & QE is also different. "FisQEl Policy", if you will... (as opposed to the pure asset swap QE of the 2008-2014 period).@TheStalwart