I attended it live, there could be a mistake or two
Comparison of our business should be done yearly and not quarterly as we have said before (Due to lumpiness)
Growth guidance of 15-20% remains intact, expecting H2FY21 to be much stronger.
Product mix has also led to a decline in margins also environment-related costs have gone up.
Categorically denied the rumours of selling the business, stated that such news was there 9 months ago
and 1 year ago as well. No plans to sell.
All About additional capex of 600 crores
New money is not being used for R&D anymore, some of our blocks are more than 30 years old, spending money for Tech Upgradation,and replacing old blocks (Building by building).
Process hasn’t been finalized, will update in coming months. Entire activity will be completed in next 6 months. Capex also is being done for qualitative purpose to upgrade ourselves as we see next 5 years to be positive.
To survive in this business you have to upgrade. 20-25% of the capex would be for additional capacity.
On capex of 320 crores, expecting fully utilization and impact to be seen in next 24 months (Hopefully).
On Pharma(Project) Pipeline
1 product is in phase 3 and 1 more has moved into phase 3, for which we will be supplying in next 6 months.
This quarter Formulation sales were at 10.18 crores, out of which 2 crores was royalty. 11 fillings have been done, out of which 5 are approved. 3 are commercial
and expecting to launch 2 more before the end of this year.Suven is also entering the contract manufacturing of API’s and Formulations for CDMO customers (Generic Api and Generic Formulation). Participating in life cycle management of its customers products. This will be a new
line of the business. Profit share from Rising will accrue, when Rising pays a dividend. First 6 months they reported PAT of 19 crores, and in last year in H1 they reported a PAT of 20 crores and 48 crores for full year.
On Spechem: we will be launching 1 product this year and another one in next year.
Dislosure and my views: Capex of 600 crores, 2 ways to look at this. First way, is that this is actually required to upgrade itself technologically or capability wise in order to get new customers
,and some of it should be looked as replacement/maintainence capex since some blocks are 30 years old.The second way, it can be negative for the shareholders in the near term, as this CAPEX could be unsubstantiated and the cash flows which were to come to the shareholders would
get delayed. Could also be a red flag as CWIP/Gross block would remain elevated just after the completion of 320 crores of CAPEX.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please consult your Financial Advisor. We are not SEBI registered Advisors.
*36 months*
Another way of thinking about it is: Mr Jatsi has cashflow and he will be able to scale the business in the coming years. No doubt capabilityy wise
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Q2FY21 Concall Updates: Business, Risk and Management
Business
-Credit Rating has been upgraded by ICRA on back of the upgrade by Crisil in the last quarter.
-Topline was up by 12% (YOY) and 23% on QoQ basis.
-Margins remained at 32% and experienced 150BPS reduction in expenses primarily due to power cost and RM cost coming down,
and change in mix of the business.
-Staff cost increased by 22% to 161 crores as compared to 132 Crores last year, which led to a 15% increase in employee cost.
-Currently we have 5200 employees as compared to 4700 employees last year
Gujarat Ambuja exports limited🌽 fell from a peak mutliple of 30 to 10 times. As the maize prices rose due to fall Armyworm infestations etc from Rs14-15 to Rs 24-25 . Since Gael entered into Fixed contracts and is partly a commoditized player, margins fell
In the maize segment to low single digits. They have consistently made a 15% Roce in this business for the last decade. This was part 1 of the cycle, when the markets perception changed from Growth PE to a steady state mutliple as business experienced headwinds
Part 2- nearly 10% of the industry capacity collapsed as they couldn't bear the hike in RM prices. In terms of competitive scenario, competitive intensity just lessened. Yet it was being valued below 10 times due to uncertainty in the short run.