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1 Nov, 8 tweets, 6 min read
Here’s a roundup of some of the material we have produced or highlighted during this extraordinary week.

1. A short thread from @john_actuary examining the @imperialcollege #REACT antibody study. Antibody prevalence is decreasing, which might imply falling immunity.
2. There was no Mortality Monitor from the CMI this week (though one is due this Tuesday) but @ActuaryByDay analysed the latest @ONS weekly death statistics noting that deaths are above the five-year average.
3. We published a bulletin from @john_actuary on Tuesday, looking at hospital admissions. He estimates that just under 1-in-5 COVID-19 admissions is acquired in the hospital setting. He also concludes that the vast majority of admissions are “from COVID” not just “with COVID”.
4. Another new bulletin on Wednesday, this time from Matthew Edwards, looking at the impact of social isolation. Particularly pertinent as England faces into another lockdown.
6. Infections next, with @john_actuary summarising the contrasting findings from #REACT on Thursday (estimating 96,000 infections a day) and the @ONS on Friday (estimating 51,900 infections a day).

ONS:
7. On Friday we published our monthly medical update, written by @NicolaMedical and @DanRyanCoios.

This gives the current state of play in respect of:
- vaccines
- treatments
- testing
- antibodies
- long COVID
8. On Saturday, @john_actuary provided a summary of the latest @ICNARC report into intensive care admissions and deaths. This now includes 2,350 second wave admissions, comparing these to the first wave.
9. Finally, earlier tonight we provided an update on admissions and deaths in English hospitals. Perhaps some tentative signs that the rate of increase might be slowing, but we’ll need to see what the coming days show as weekend numbers can be lower.

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
3 Nov
The latest update on England admissions and deaths following the weekend catch-up of deaths. Admissions growth has slowed in the last few days, with the doubling time extending to around 3 weeks. Let's hope this slowdown is maintained in the coming days. 1/4 Image
Similarly the increase in deaths has slowed from the doubling every 10 days we were seeing a week or so ago, once we adjust for estimated late reporting delays. Hopefully this will slow further in a week or so in line with the admissions figures above. 2/4 Image
After a period of stability, our estimate of R has dipped a little to 1.2, consistent with the admissions slow down. It relates to mid Oct, so we should be starting to see some of the benefits of restrictions introduced around then, particularly in the North. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
1 Nov
Admissions were out late yesterday, so a Sunday update instead of England hospital admissions & deaths. Admissions dipped today, possibly a hopeful sign, but we saw a similar dip 14 days ago, so it's too early to form any conclusions. The doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4 Image
Weekend deaths are always lower, but nevertheless there appears to be a slight reduction in growth, from around 10 days to 14. This would be broadly consistent with admissions growth 2 weeks ago. The moving average is now over 160, after adjusting for reporting lags. 2/4 Image
Our estimate of R continues to be very stable, and has been between 1.25 and 1.30 for 12 days now. Remember this is based on admissions and then working back to infection date, so relates to a period of between 2 and 3 weeks ago. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
25 Oct
How’s your Sunday going? Do you have enough reading material?

ICYMI - here is some of our group’s output from the week just gone.

1. We started the week with an exploration of the statistics and real life implications of #superspreading from @Sharpe_Actuary
2. Next @john_actuary examined Monday’s @ONS report on excess mortality at home that has been seen since the peak. He (and ONS) highlighted the crucial context that deaths overall have been no higher than usual (since the peak) so this just represents a shift between settings.
3. On Tuesday we shared the latest report from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), part of @actuarynews.

They found that death rates in late Sept and early Oct were very similar to 2019. So the COVID-19 deaths were not yet translating in higher death rates overall.
Read 9 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
24 Oct
Our usual Saturday update of England hospital admissions and deaths, starting with admissions. The moving average has increased 31% in a week, down from 42% a week ago, representing an easing of the growth rate. Doubling time is now around 18 days. 1/4
Sadly we've seen deaths exceed 100 per day this week, and the current doubling time of 10 days is broadly consistent with that for admissions about two weeks ago. We can expect these figures to rise further before hopefully the rate of growth starts to ease. 2/4
Our estimate of R continues to edge down in line with the fall in admissions growth. However, it is still around 1.3 which suggests numbers will continue to grow. This won't reflect the most recent restrictions, as there is a lag of around 2 weeks from infection to admission. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
22 Oct
Updated hospital admissions and deaths for England, starting with admissions. Today sees 900 breached for the first time, but there are signs of a slight slowing of the growth rate, doubling in 16 days. Early days though, as we saw a similar easing in late Sep, soon reversed. 1/4 Image
For deaths, the doubling time is faster, at about 10 days. We've also seen 100 deaths breached, with 117 reported for the 17th already. A reminder for new readers, we uplift recent days to allow for reporting lags, using a standard actuarial method based on recent delays. 2/4 Image
Our estimate of R is drifting down slightly, consistent with admissions growth, but you can see from the volatility that stronger evidence is needed before any firm conclusion can be drawn. What might be behind any easing? We'll look at the regional picture next. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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