Tweet 1 of 9

Drawing from our reporters with residency or roots in or around the nation’s biggest battlegrounds, @politico profiled the 8 key states where the presidential election will be decided

AZ, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, PA & WI

Take a tour below 👇
2) Arizona

There’s a reason Biden has spent more on TV in the Phoenix media market than in any other in the nation

The once-crimson state is changing fast

And there’s a Senate seat in play

via @lbarronlopez

politi.co/381LAdj
2) Florida

Republicans are relying on their numerous high-propensity voters to carry the day; the Democrats need a more-complicated coalition

via me

politi.co/3mBC1Ga
3) Georgia

Enormous growth, demographic change and an anti-Trump backlash in the Atlanta suburbs is driving Georgia’s newfound competitiveness

And the state has TWO Senate seats up for grabs

via @ec_schneider
politi.co/3emcnlJ
4) Michigan

Republicans spent the past four years marveling at each of the 10,704 votes that put Donald Trump over the top here in 2016, hoping he could expand his coalition. That hope is gone

And there’s a Senate seat in play

via @TimAlberta

politi.co/3mHG183
5) Minnesota

Coronavirus cases are surging. The early vote looks great for Democrats, who have swamped Trump’s ad spending in the state.
But the contest feels as if it tightened slightly in recent days.

via @davidsiders

politi.co/3mGbsj9
6) North Carolina

For a Republican incumbent, Donald Trump looks weak in NC. But the GOP believes its ground game is so superior it will protect him here.

A Senate seat is in play as well

via @michaelkruse
politi.co/37XFbzY
7) Pennsylvania

The aptly named Keystone State is the most closely contested, and anxiety is high amid GOP efforts to restrict mail-in voting and deploy a legion of poll watchers thar many fear would lead to voter intimidation

via @hollyotterbein

politi.co/2HSmfYu
8) Wisconsin

Trump is battling the headwinds of covid and Democratic enthusiasm to get him out of office

But don’t count him out here

via @natashakorecki
politi.co/35OAeqg
9) thanks to @PoliticoCharlie for once again wrapping this together, the third time we’ve done this in 2020

politi.co/35SXzHD

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More from @MarcACaputo

2 Nov
1/4

Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
2/4

As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?

Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.

Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Tweet 1 of 3

Democrats stopped the bleeding on the last day of early voting, gaining a new 13k early ballots on Republicans. Dem margin: 108,123, which should grow as more ABs come in

Total votes: 9m
Rep: 3.4m (38%)
Dem: 3.5m (39%)
Ind: 2.1m (23%)

politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 2/3

Today's 10k foot view story of what we're looking at is here
politi.co/3mBC1Ga
Tweet 3/3

Background threads on how we got here, the differences between counting ballots vs. tabulating votes, independents etc.

Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
The use of Jumbotron video messages in the midst of Trump rallies —in the case of the Dubuque event, he’s showing a mashup of Biden NAFTA, trade & gaffes — is an innovative technique other campaigns will make standard in the future
The rally is being broadcast live on Fox, which is showing the rally showing people watching clips from Fox played on the Jumbotron
If memory serves, Nixon invented the technique of airport rallies and his campaign might be associated with the first use of the term "photo op"
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
🚨If you live in Florida & believe your absentee ballot has been lost in the mail or it seems late arriving, YOU CAN STILL VOTE IN PERSON

1) at an early vote station this weekend

2) on Election Day

Your AB will be auto-canceled if it arrives after you vote in person
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
1/4
Another record day on both sides in FL: Republicans took a huge chunk (56,370) out of the Dems early/absentee vote margin but the Dem lead is still huge & historic (245,912)

The race is tightening.

So how does it compare to 2016?
2/4 In 2016, Rs & Ds were about tied at this point, w/Ds gaining in EVAB.

On Election Day, Dems had a 90k lead in EVAB ballots over GOP

When those votes were tabulated, Clinton won them w/a 247k margin

But Trump won Election Day with 361k more votes & carried the state by 113k
3/4
This is a reminder that all D votes don't=Biden nor R votes=Trump but they *sort of* cancel each other out. Indies lean Biden in most polls, but by how much?

Lots of voting left.
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false

The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running.

The election is in a week.
2/7 Since this is getting some attention, a little background here: Trump’s campaign has had a very active ad-buying strategy that looks almost erratic to everyone else. As a result, when I saw he was allegedly going dark, it made 0 sense (unless it was an intentional head fake)
3/7

But my Twitter avatar is Doubting Thomas for a reason and I know that guesses are a bad way to conduct reporting. So I asked Ad Analytics and this was the response
Read 9 tweets

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