1/4
Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
2/4
As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?
Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.
Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years
Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.
Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years
4/4
We don't know total turnout (76% or higher?). We don't know Rs/Ds who vote Biden/Trump or how many indies=Biden (but even GOP polls think he's up at least 2)
But we do know the 2 parties are making similar bets they've made in the past politi.co/3mBC1Ga
We don't know total turnout (76% or higher?). We don't know Rs/Ds who vote Biden/Trump or how many indies=Biden (but even GOP polls think he's up at least 2)
But we do know the 2 parties are making similar bets they've made in the past politi.co/3mBC1Ga
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