In the past fortnight I've commonly heard the idea that if Biden wins, that'll increase the chances of a #Brexit Deal

If Trump wins it will be the opposite

Is that right?

To test my assumptions I've made a basic diagram Image
I think one aspect is right: if Trump wins, that will indeed increase Number 10's likely belligerence - if Trump can triumph against the odds, surely so can we, and so let's sock it to the EU - No Deal
If Biden wins it's actually not so clear

There are two factors to bear in mind

First, how does Biden react? If Anthony Gardner's words turn out to be true, that is *not* going to go down well in Number 10!
theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/an…
Second, when Biden spoke about Ireland back in September, part of the UK conservative commentariat said basically, sod you, Biden - see this for example

reaction.life/bumbling-biden…
I think we know by now that Number 10 does not react well to being pushed or provoked. The only way to make them do what you want is if they feel like it was their idea

Whether Biden can be bothered massaging Johnson's ego... we don't know. But I'd suspect it's a low priority
Beyond the election there are two further important things to bear in mind.

First, what the House of Lords does to the Internal Market Bill on 9 November.
Second, the prevailing headache that even a Deal ready for 1 January will not prevent disruption at the borders, meaning No Deal - and pointing the finger at the EU - might be easier to communicate than a Deal would be.

/ends

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More from @jonworth

4 Nov
This may be dangerous, but I am going to attempt a thread about the US election

Take this with a hefty pinch of salt, because I do not know much about US politics

But that's the point

Neither do you, probably
The difference between being a political analyst and a political polemicist is that the former should actually help contribute to our understanding, while the latter will use any opportunity or lever to defend their line or their side.

The problem is that analysis is hard.
"How could Trump perform so well, given so many Americans have died from COVID?"

People thought Trump was doing his best?
People doubted Biden would do better?
People believed in conspiracy theories about it?
Read 15 tweets
2 Nov
So Czech state rail operator ČD engaged in predatory pricing against private rival RegioJet, the Commission has found

railjournal.com/financial/ec-i…
But that's not all.

Emails have been leaked where ČD and ÖBB (Austrian State Railways) correspond re. the sales of second hand carriages, to make sure they don't get into RegioJet's hands

Original Czech:
seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/manazer…
Google Translate:
translate.google.com/translate?sl=a…

The ČD-ÖBB emails are in English.

The essence here is - not for the first time - that efforts to liberalise Europe's railways are stacked against rivals to the state incumbent railways.
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
This thread is about a very personal lucky escape - not catching Coronavirus and what happened next

Generally throughout the pandemic so far my view has been that Germany has been coping comparatively well. Now I am not so sure...
So to the story...

On 8 Oct, my partner and I moved flat from Kreuzberg (near Gleisdreieckpark) to Neukölln (near S/U Hermannstrasse). Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg has been rivalling Neukölln and Mitte as the 3 Berlin Bezirke with the highest COVID cases per 100k inhabitants
On Sunday 18 Oct we went by 🚲 to Friedrichshain to have dinner with 2 friends.

Turns out that a person they had met the previous day - 17 October - had tested positive, but that was not known at the time.
Read 17 tweets
26 Oct
So the CDU is postponing its party congress - scheduled for 4 December it now will not take place then, due to COVID

Reuters has a summary here:
uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKB…

#cdupt20
There are three candidates officially in the running to succeed AKK as leader of the CDU, and - as they see it - to succeed Merkel as Chancellor after the September 2021 election

Those running are:
@ArminLaschet
@_FriedrichMerz
@n_roettgen
Merz has been fast in blasting the decision to postpone, but - from a calculating perspective - I am not sure why

Laschet was the favourite back in the spring, but his star has been fading. The more Corona roars back, and the more Laschet wobbles in response, better for Merz
Read 9 tweets
26 Oct
There's also a healthy amount of British establishment disliking anyone with any sort of ideology in this "Remainers should have folded to back Brexit" revisionism from Peter Foster and others
People in the circle of friends of people like Peter Foster should not believe in anything, or at least not believe in anything too strongly

The British establishment should demurely fold in behind the direction of the government of the day
On Brexit it didn't

This left people such as Telegraph and now FT journalists, and the likes of the CBI or Which? or the NFU lost and confused
Read 14 tweets
22 Oct
Serious question: what is the direct and short term impact of the US Election result on the UK's Brexit negotiations?

Why is this relevant?

US election is 3 Nov, UK-EU trade deal now only likely mid-November - i.e. afterwards
Trump wins: Johnson sees that a belligerent hardliner can win, despite it all, and the 🥕 of a UK-US Trade Deal is still there (yes, I know this wouldn't happen in reality, but you think Liz Truss et al care? It's the *idea* that matters)

Brexit impact: chances of No Deal ⬆️?
Biden wins: Johnson has lost his main ally, Trump, and the prospect of a trade deal with the USA - short term - evaporates too. Biden will have other priorities than attending to the UK, and indeed friendship with Paris, Berlin, Brussels will be a higher priority
Read 6 tweets

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