Thread by @jonworth

In the past fortnight I've commonly heard the idea that if Biden wins, that'll increase the chances of a #Brexit Deal

If Trump wins it will be the opposite

Is that right?

To test my assumptions I've made a basic diagram

I think one aspect is right: if Trump wins, that will indeed increase Number 10's likely belligerence - if Trump can triumph against the odds, surely so can we, and so let's sock it to the EU - No Deal

If Biden wins it's actually not so clear

There are two factors to bear in mind

First, how does Biden react? If Anthony Gardner's words turn out to be true, that is *not* going to go down well in Number 10!
theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/an…

Second, when Biden spoke about Ireland back in September, part of the UK conservative commentariat said basically, sod you, Biden - see this for example

reaction.life/bumbling-biden…

I think we know by now that Number 10 does not react well to being pushed or provoked. The only way to make them do what you want is if they feel like it was their idea

Whether Biden can be bothered massaging Johnson's ego... we don't know. But I'd suspect it's a low priority

Beyond the election there are two further important things to bear in mind.

First, what the House of Lords does to the Internal Market Bill on 9 November.

Second, the prevailing headache that even a Deal ready for 1 January will not prevent disruption at the borders, meaning No Deal - and pointing the finger at the EU - might be easier to communicate than a Deal would be.

/ends