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5 Nov, 13 tweets, 11 min read
1/ My latest for @MPRnews looks at the power & the limits of the DFL’s electoral dominance in the Twin Cities. First, the power: Biden’s landslide in Hennepin Cty ALONE was bigger than all Trump’s counties COMBINED. It’s no wonder Ds have a winning streak. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 2/ But while no Republican has won a statewide race in MN since 2006, largely because of the mass of DFL votes out of Hennepin and Ramsey, this power has limits. Against the DFL winning streak in STATEWIDE elections, #mnleg control keeps flipping. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 3/ In 2020, Biden is winning Minnesota by about 7 points. But at the present, it looks like the DFL is going to LOSE the #mnleg Senate. This could change as votes trickle in, but if the DFL wins it it’ll be NARROWLY, amid a giant Biden win. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 4/ So why are Democrats so dominant in statewide races, but #mnleg is a seesaw? Part of it is that DFL votes are inefficiently concentrated in the Twin Cities. Running up the vote w/ your base helps you win statewide, but not in a DISTRICTED election. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 5/ In 2020, at this moment Democrats are on track to win a majority of statewide two-party votes for #mnleg Senate, 50.73%, but to take away only 49.2% of seats. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 6/ Now, that’s a pretty small gap all told, it just seems really significant because the numbers are on opposite sides of 50%. But this is persistent. DFLers almost always have what’s called an “efficiency gap” in #mnleg elections — more votes “wasted” in blowout races.
@MPRnews 7/ The only times this century that DFL #mnleg candidates didn’t “waste” more votes than Republicans were the wave years of 2006 and 2008, when they won all over rural MN. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 8/ But an efficiency gap doesn’t make it impossible to win control. You might notice Dems had a smaller efficiency gap in 2020, when they probably lost the Senate, than in 2012, when they won it. There’s another explanation to consider, too. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 9/ At least in the last few elections, it looks like there are a considerable number of Minnesotans who are splitting their tickets, voting for Democratic presidents & governors, but Republicans for #mnleg. Right now DFLers are losing 6 Biden districts. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 10/ Biden beat Trump in 37 #mnleg Senate districts, enough for a majority if every district had followed presidential vote patterns. But ticket-splitting veered against #mnleg DFLers here. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 11/ And this isn’t new! For most of the past decade, Republican candidates for #mnleg combined have outperformed GOP candidates for president or governor, often by 100K votes or more. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 12/ It could be these are former Republicans who have started voting for Democratic executives but still back Republican legislators. Or DFLers voting red for #mnleg. Or people voting for divided gov’t. Lots of possible explanations. mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@MPRnews 13/ Anyway, check out my full story @MPRnews, and shoot me your theories and explanations! mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…

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More from @dhmontgomery

David Montgomery Profile picture
5 Nov
Another record number of newly reported #COVID19 cases in Minnesota today — just under 4,000. The 7-day average is now 3,235 new cases/day, also a record.
SOME of this record increase is due to testing volume and when cases happen to be reported — the positivity rate declined day-over-day, and cases by sample date are peaking a little lower, at about 3,500. But the increase *is* real, even if testing explains a little of it.
#COVID19 ICU admissions hit a record high today in Minnesota, both for single days and for the 7-day trend:
Read 12 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
4 Nov
So the election’s not yet over — and neither is #COVID19. The latest stats in MN show the outbreak continuing to expand, including a record number of positive cases: 3,844.

The 7-day average is up over 3,000 newly reported cases per day.
Yesterday I said the freakishly high, 30% positivity rate was probably a fluke. Today’s data bears that out, but that’s the only good news — the average positivity rate is 12.3%, nearly 3 times higher than a month ago.
This was another day of more than 30 newly reported #COVID19 deaths. Minnesota’s average daily COVID deaths is now over 20/day.
Read 11 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
3 Nov
Here’s what I’ll be watching once results come in tonight: I’ve classified every Minnesota precinct into buckets based on its 2016 vote, and then will see what vote margins it puts up in 2020.

In 2018, as you can see, DFL strongholds held steady while GOP strongholds collapsed. Image
This can be helpful at the #mnleg level, too. Here’s an example from House District 44A, a DFL pickup in 2018. In 2016, most of the district’s precincts voted heavily for @Rep_SAnderson. Two years later, she lost support in all types of precincts, especially her '16 strongholds. Image
@Rep_SAnderson Or in #mn02, where @AngieCraigMN improved against @LewisForMN basically across the board from 2016 to 2018: Image
Read 5 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
3 Nov
Uh, so…

Remember how LAST Tuesday we had a huge spike in positivity rate, driven by cases rising and tests falling?

Well, I think there’s something about Tuesdays now.

I hope you’re sitting down.
Again: do NOT put too much emphasis on the one-day positivity rate north of 30%. Focus on the trend. Which is still really bad.
This positivity spike comes from a new *record high* number of reported cases, combined with a huge dropoff in reported tests.
Read 10 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
3 Nov
As of this morning, 1.85 million Minnesotans voted before Election Day. (This number will tick up a little more, as ballots arrive today, and — courts depending — over the next few days.)

283K outstanding ballots, many of whom are probably people who decided to vote in-person.
More than 130,000 Minnesotans voted early between yesterday morning and this morning. It looks like ~70,000 of those might have been early-in-person (judging by the number of requests) and ~55-60K were mail ballots arriving.
Overall, Minnesota’s 1.85M early votes is about 62% of 2016 turnout, and about 45% of the total eligible elctorate.
Read 4 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
2 Nov
1.72 million Minnesotans have already voted in the 2020 presiential election. There are about 340,000 absentee ballots out that have not been returned yet; some may still be in transit, while many of the rest might be people who are planning on voting in-person.
Here’s the rate of early voting in Minnesota over time. Even if a big final rush happens in the next 24 hours, we’ll almost certainly fall short of 2 million early votes (and definitely won’t, unlike some other states with lower historic turnout, surpass 2016 total votes).
Here’s that same chart, early voting over time in Minnesota, as a percent of 2016 turnout:
Read 5 tweets

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