Thread by @dhmontgomery

Here’s what I’ll be watching once results come in tonight: I’ve classified every Minnesota precinct into buckets based on its 2016 vote, and then will see what vote margins it puts up in 2020.

In 2018, as you can see, DFL strongholds held steady while GOP strongholds collapsed.

This can be helpful at the #mnleg level, too. Here’s an example from House District 44A, a DFL pickup in 2018. In 2016, most of the district’s precincts voted heavily for @Rep_SAnderson. Two years later, she lost support in all types of precincts, especially her '16 strongholds.

@Rep_SAnderson Or in #mn02, where @AngieCraigMN improved against @LewisForMN basically across the board from 2016 to 2018:

It’ll be more art than science judging this as the votes come in tonight, but hopefully this can give us some interesting insights about which way the election is going in MN.

Here’s a race that went the other way in 2018: #mn01. Compare to 2016, when now-@GovTimWalz won unexpectedly narrowly, to 2018, when @JimHagedornMN beat @danielfeehan — both parties’ strongholds turned out, but Hagedorn decisively won 2016’s battleground precincts.