Big game is finally here! My fellow @CourierTimes
and @TheIntellNews reporters and I are visiting polling places and the @BucksCountyGovt elections office throughout the day and night with regular updates. My shift starts at 3 sooooo DATA THREAD!!!! bit.ly/3mPLjP2 1/8
According to the state's voter export (last updated at midnight Nov. 2), more than 2.4 million voters had already cast a ballot by mail. That's roughly 25% of the state's more than 9 million registered voters. 2/8
Those numbers wouldn't include any last-minute ballots dropped off, nor is taking into account any election results (because time moves forward, no matter how hard I try). Some counties have already seen more than 35% turnout from mail-in ballots so far. 3/8
Overall, about 60% to 90% of voters in counties across the commonwealth haven't voted as of Monday. The ~70% of voters waiting to cast their ballots in Bucks started early this morning. bit.ly/3kZvcxG 4/8
@marioncallahan talked to voters in New Hope earlier today about the high in-person turnout and why they're out today 5/8
State data shows nearly 2,500 voters are registered in small borough along the Delaware River. About 37% of them have already voted. Many precincts in central Bucks have already seen more than 30% voter turnout prior to the election 6/8
Warminster's 14th District has had the highest mail-in turnout before today at almost 60%. 7/8
I'm going to shift some files over to my laptop now, then we can talk about party differences as I update this thread throughout the day and well into the evening. I'll leave you with this map of Dem vs. Rep voters by precinct in Bucks for now. 8/????

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More from @ulleryatintell

5 Nov
We've seen a lot of changes as results have rolled in. Trump's lead in both the state and Bucks County over Biden has been dwindling as more mail-in ballots get counted. Let's take a look at how the county shifted over the last 24 hours.
bit.ly/3eyWngn
Just after midnight Nov. 4, the majority of the county's 304 precincts reported in. Trump had 56% of the votes to Biden's 46%, giving the incumbent President a significant lead in the earliest results. Image
More precincts began reporting in shortly before 2 a.m. yesterday morning. The newly reported precincts kept the gap between the two candidates the same as hours earlier. Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
Thought I'd switch things up from the standard party differences I've been looking at with the voter export. Let's talk a little about the gender make up of the ~9 million voters in Pennsylvania. 1/???
For the most part, the gender makeup of voters in each town is relatively even. The difference between total male and female registered voters as a percent of all voters is generally less than a few percentage points.
There are only about 20 towns where women voters make up over 50% of the registered voters, and 8 of them are in Somerset County. Only one municipality has a 60% female voter makeup.
Read 11 tweets
28 Oct
I wanted to follow up on @davegilmartin's question about ballots returned from my first data thread this week. He asked about early voting turnout by county and by party. Strap in, we've got to talk about color choice and geospatial data analysis 1/???
Let's start here: here's the overall breakdown of total voters by major parties in each county. The darker the blue, the more democratic voters and vice versa. While GOP voters trail Dems, the margins aren't so far off that we can't use a decent color spectrum.
In the case of this map, I'm subtracting Dems from GOP and setting our range at -25,000 to 25,000 because each party has at least several counties where they lead by that many voters.
Read 11 tweets
26 Oct
Last week, we took a look at new voters over the past month using Pennsylvania's voter export. @James_McGinnis wrote this story on the lead Democrats have across the state bit.ly/3ou6EyO and the map below is one I made last week showing party control by county 1/
I often consider countywide maps like these not quite as informative as I think voter breakdowns should be. You don't really get the nuanced analysis that you'd probably want to see. For instance:
Democrats outnumber Republicans in all of these southeastern Pa. counties. You can get an idea of which counties have the most Democrats, but that's about all you can really get from a countywide heatmap
Read 9 tweets
18 Aug
1/ A new coronavirus alert app from @PAHealthDept was the focus of today's press conference - you can read about that here - bit.ly/2Ee6zga - but lets go over some of the new case numbers and see what the past couple weeks has looked like in PA and in #BucksCounty
Let's start with the broad overview: 7-day and 14-day average new cases are currently holding fairly steady at about 770 cases as of Monday. That's roughly the same levels the state saw in late May, when new cases were declining after an initial boom
Looking at August alone, it looks like the 7-day average was valleys and peaks in the first two weeks before almost intersecting with the 14-day average that had a much steadier decline over the past two weeks.
Read 21 tweets
10 Aug
1/ All right, this week we looked at some programs @BucksDa and @BucksCountyGovt are looking at to make some changes to how local law enforcement deals with individuals with a mental illness bit.ly/3abvzkd
2/ I wanted to take some time and review some 911 data provided through a series of Right to Know requests to @911BucksCounty. Let's start with some baseline information on the 4.5 million call database of police and EMS calls between 2012 and April 10, 2020
3/ Police make up the bulk of the 911 data, and these are all calls that pass through the radio room. EMS calls only make up about 10% of all calls, but the radio room is also logging everything from traffic stops to homicide investigations.
Read 17 tweets

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