📍BREAKING—Federal District Court judge orders an immediate sweep of 12 postal districts searching for undelivered ballots after USPS said that **300,000 ballots had not been scanned for delivery**. Most worrisome postal areas: Philly, Central PA, Detroit. nyti.ms/2TTNcgQ?referr…
2) “Data the Postal Service filed on Election Day showed continued low on-time processing scores for ballots delivered Monday in several battleground postal districts:
📌69% in Central Pennsylvania
📌79% in Philadelphia
📌78% in Detroit
📌61% in Atlanta
📌74% in South Florida
3) “All states require that mail ballots be postmarked by Election Day in order to count, but some allow a grace period for the ballots to arrive in the hands of elections officials. PA, for instance, has a three-day window to receive ballots as long as they are postmarked...
4) “by Nov. 3, but that is the subject of litigation.
The ballots in question should have been postmarked upon entering a postal facility, but the sweep will help determine whether any fell through the cracks”
5) I’m particularly annoyed as I’m from Central Pa where I mostly grew up. I’m worried about Pa ballot disenfranchisement already with naked ballots being already rejected in Pa. oy.
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HOLY SHIT... if 90.7k remaining uncounted ballots in Georgia... Trump lead is currently just 31.7k. If Biden win the remaining ballots by 70-30%, we go to a ***TIE*** and recount.
MINKS INFECT HUMANS. We know that for certain. Danish scientist say new #SARSCoV2 mutation mostly dodges our neutralizing antibodies, which is very bad. We should not yet panic, but the “pro-alarmism” versus “it’s just the flu” anti-alarmism tug is back🧵. nytimes.com/2020/11/04/hea…
2) What we do know is that Danish epidemiologists and virologists were worried enough to tell the Danish Prime Minister to immediately CULL 15-17 million minks across Danish 1000 mink farms and completely WIPE OUT ALL MINKS FARMS. That is not a small. That’s big executive action.
3) We also know an recent mink #SARSCoV2 outbreak in Utah led to widespread death of thousands of mink because of coronavirus outbreak. Granted Utah authorities there said the humans transmitted virus to monks, but we also know from Europe that minks transmit to humans easily.
FOLKS—Polling sucks. Amateur-“pro”-political polls as we know it—is done. Polls had said Biden led FL w/ 70% chance of winning—it became a wide Trump win.
2) Many epidemiologists have long worried political polling is overconfident, uncertainties underestimated, & state/local factors poorly adjusted. Now we’re seeing it play out—again.
I know someone who paid $25k for what ended up as crap n=400 poll that’s worthless.
3) Many sources of unaccounted for uncertainties in polls:
📌SAMPLING (landline vs cell vs other?)
📌RESPONSE BIAS (shy respondent)
📌TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMPTIONS (who shows up)
📌STATISTICAL WEIGHTING adds extra variance (error)
3) But here is the thing—Trump actually can’t directly fire Dr Fauci, who is head of NIAID, which is a division of NIH. Only NIH Director Francis Collins is likely the only one who can fire Fauci—but they are decades old best friends. And Collins says he would not!
⚠️Just in—El Paso County is having to set up another 4th mobile morgue at the medical examiner’s office due to overwhelming surge of #COVID19 deaths.
➡️ When was their earlier 3rd mobile morgue unit? ***just yesterday***.
2) El Paso #COVID19 deaths piling up so fast, faster than the county can investigate them—there is now a huge **backlog of 85 bodies tonight alone**.
3) Crazier—El Paso Mayor directing police not to enforce the El Paso Judge’s business shutdown order. But because Judge controls sheriffs and constables, they are enforcing the shutdown order. Dueling law enforcement underway in El Paso. Such an utter nightmare! #COVID19