So let's talk about our needles. Florida was easy, as you can see. What about NC and GA? 
At the moment we've got Trump favored in Georgia by 4 and North Carolina by about a point.
If you look at the results by method, you can see why: the eday vote is great for Trump and that's what's left in NC, in particular
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
If you look at the results by method, you can see why: the eday vote is great for Trump and that's what's left in NC, in particular
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
There are a few things I pause at right now, though.
One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbs
One is that all three states are in the same model. We control for state and voting method. Does the flood of results in Florida bias us a bit in NC/GA, especially in Latino areas? I think that's at least possible in GA burbs
I can make some related subpoints: we don't think Biden crushed it, compared to our expectations, in well-educated parts of Florida. Maybe that won't hold up in the GA suburbs, and he can still crush it there. Just an example.
The point is that the needle does assume that these demographic shifts cross statelines, and it's at least conceivable that they don't. Given that FL was first and very bad for Biden, it could prove to be too tough on him elsewhere
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