1. Let me tell you something about the value of @ProjectLincoln this cycle. They wanted their work to influence actual Reps & as an expert, I told them that was unlikely bc of hyperpartisanship. But their work NO DOUBT was a KEY diff maker in turnout & vote share for Biden in the
2. key swing states (& likely Biden's win shares in AZ, WI, MI, & hopefully PA) & in these key Senate races. Their ads contained both persuasion & mobilization elements & their work expanded to include GOTV & Direct Mail. If you gave $ to the @ProjectLincoln- it was well-spent &
3. in my opinion, was likely the diff maker in AZ where due to what I call McCain Reps- the @ProjectLincoln likely did produce a crossover effect. The 8 principles of the LP built a large campaign organization that became a major player this cycle & I hope is going to reorg
4. into a permanent player bc it looks like Trump is going to lose the Electoral College but the GOP is going to hold the Senate & that's not bc of the @ProjectLincoln- its bc of the @dscc & shitty electioneering. So put your ire in the right place. And one more thing. You should
5. know that a senior adviser role for @ProjectLincoln is a volunteer role- there is no $ for it & I've never made any money from them. Like almost everything else I do, I do it for free. In fact, this election cycle has cost me $, not made me $. Just so we're clear on that shit.
Also y'all got get over what didn't work for now and focus on the fact that Biden has WON! Now the real war starts- pushing Trump OUT! All hands on deck!

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More from @RachelBitecofer

6 Nov
1. Whether or not 6 or 7 members of the Ds House Caucus are extreme enough to back slogans like "defend the police" is irrelevant- 0 could & the shrewd GOP would still saddle members like @SpanbergerVA07 w it.

What matters is how her own campaign gets run- the way its done now,
2. From a constantly defensive posture where she is defending her well-est moderation against a party of actual extremists, or the way that I suggest, in the offense, from a position of strength that puts the Rep Party on the defense. To me this is a no brainer- her & the other
3. Frontline Dems should be reaching out to me to discuss how we modernize the Dem Party's electioneering approach so they don't lose their majority in 2022.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
1. So Ds have locked in 2 of the 3 I expected them to win. The AZ seat, along w the CO seat, were pure neg partisanship- turnout surge meets demographic realignment seats, easy to see flipping.

Maine senate, however, relied on purely persuasion. Lower college edu, overwhelmingly
2. white, and majority Independent, Maine is part of a set of 3 states that make up one of the most politically interesting regions in the country (Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire). That is bc each of these 3 states report large populations of Independents which is probably
3. why Maine and Vermont are the two states (and only two) that send political Independents to the senate (Sanders and King). My belief was that in this environment, Collins simply could not avoid being tied to Trump- esp w what ended up being 3 major events tying her to him &
Read 12 tweets
6 Nov
1. Vote Count Thread

The GOP legislatures refused to allow early counting of the mail vote in order to assist Trump w his "Red Mirage" plan. The goal was that IF the election was super close, he'd need to create the illusion of fraudulent ballots, so they needed a "live count"
2. process to be able to work the media and to be able to work the courts. BC FL basically invested the mail vote (absentee vote-by-mail system) the infrastructure for it has been codified- that is to say the GOP couldn't easily do what they did in MI, PA, & WI bc they'd have
3. pass laws & have @GovRonDeSantis sign them. So it was decided to rely on the Blue Wall states- which added/expanded their very weak vote-by-mail systems dramatically to deal w the pandemic. As everyone knows. the WI GOP f'ed w the Dems hard in the spring Dem primary bc it also
Read 20 tweets
5 Nov
1. There's an uncomfortable pause in my int w @JulieOliverTX, @wendydavis, and @SiegelForTexas- 3 candidates for the House in TX who had great odds for flipping seats this cycle until they ran into the brick wall that is the @dccc's Red to Blue program tinyurl.com/y2697uoa
2. Under the leadership of @CheriBustos the program has failed to adapt to an environment in which Ds are winning in places w high levels of college edu and/or diversity & losing otherwise. The 2020 class has already been scrubbed from the site, web.archive.org/web/2020081703…
3. but they'll live on forever on the wayback machine's archive. The 2018 class was one thing, but when I saw that the 2020 class was not being driven by realignment analytics exposed by my forecasting work, frankly, I was shocked. Even though the DCCC hadn't reached out to me,
Read 14 tweets
5 Nov
1. When I hear @clairecmc talk about Dems learning to talk to the Piggly Wiggly crowd, I hope she'll want to join/help w my moderate messaging electioneering overall for Ds effort. BC its CRUCIAL to understand- Ds & outside groups tried already to cater to these voters on the
2. persuasion. That in fact, this cycle was the product of a very concerted effort of that strategy driven by high profile data firms on the D side (many of which who've been critical of my work) & it was a complete and total failure for 2 reasons. The main 1 is that it wants
3. to ignore the effect that polarization is having on voter behavior & the limitations that is placing on certain electioneering techniques that USED TO BE EFFECTIVE and are now not. I want to make something really clear- it is only in places where at least 1 element of the D's
Read 19 tweets
4 Nov
1. The hot take that "D's need to learn to talk to the other side of the electorate" is absolutely the WRONG take.

I mean my god. Biden, Lincoln, the outside groups: they threw the best persuasion messaging in the history of persuasion campaigns at them.

What Ds need to do is
2. is come to terms that when it comes to the electorate, the very 1st thing that matters is party ID, and this includes Indie leaners. This data is from June, but last night's results make clear that it reflects the actual results as well. Right leaning Indies- which make up Image
3. a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side. The Biden campaign, all of the Senate Dems, and the House Dem candidates bet their candidacies
Read 13 tweets

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