Dems rolled up huge margins in mail-in voting but Republicans said their opponents were just cannibalizing their in-person/Election Day voters (the GOP was right)
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Florida has 67 counties but since presidential campaigns are marketing efforts that orient spending by media market, here are the preliminary 2020 election results broken down by those 10 regions (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)
Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
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As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?
Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.
Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years
Democrats stopped the bleeding on the last day of early voting, gaining a new 13k early ballots on Republicans. Dem margin: 108,123, which should grow as more ABs come in
Drawing from our reporters with residency or roots in or around the nation’s biggest battlegrounds, @politico profiled the 8 key states where the presidential election will be decided
AZ, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, PA & WI
Take a tour below 👇
2) Arizona
There’s a reason Biden has spent more on TV in the Phoenix media market than in any other in the nation
The use of Jumbotron video messages in the midst of Trump rallies —in the case of the Dubuque event, he’s showing a mashup of Biden NAFTA, trade & gaffes — is an innovative technique other campaigns will make standard in the future
The rally is being broadcast live on Fox, which is showing the rally showing people watching clips from Fox played on the Jumbotron
If memory serves, Nixon invented the technique of airport rallies and his campaign might be associated with the first use of the term "photo op"