Thread by @JedKolko

Some preliminary and incomplete thoughts about preliminary and incomplete data.

Let's not over-generalize about Hispanic/Latino vote patterns. Yes, there was a big shift toward Trump between 2016 and 2020 in Miami and the Texas border. But, details ...

1/

In the Texas counties where a majority of the population is of Mexican origin (Census definition), Trump did 6.6 points better in 2020 than in 2016. But outside of Texas, majority-Mexican-origin counties (mostly California) actually swung about half a point away from Trump.

2/

Another way to see this:

county-level correlation between % Hispanic/Latino and swing toward Trump (excl clearly incomplete counties):

0.32 overall
0.16 without Miami-Dade
0.01 without Miami-Dade or Texas

3/

Texas and Miami of course have large Hispanic/Latino populations, but > 3/4 of Hispanics/Latinos live outside of Texas and Miami-Dade county. In the rest of the country there was essential no relationship between Hispanic/Latino share and the vote swing 2020 vs 2016.

4/

Ecological fallacy, incomplete data, and all that -- but still the data so far suggest that the Hispanic/Latino swing toward Trump was highly localized.

Lots more to dig into. So, for now, this is just a reminder not to overgeneralize.

5/end