Core unemployment remained high in October -- falling just slightly from Sept.
Core unemployment excludes temporary layoffs and remains near its pandemic high.
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Although the headline unemployment rate is far down from its peak, core unemployment remains near its pandemic high. Temporary layoffs are fading. Permanent unemployment is not.
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The temporary share of unemployment is down to 29% in October, from a high of 78% in April. Normal is in the 10-15% range.
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Some preliminary and incomplete thoughts about preliminary and incomplete data.
Let's not over-generalize about Hispanic/Latino vote patterns. Yes, there was a big shift toward Trump between 2016 and 2020 in Miami and the Texas border. But, details ...
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In the Texas counties where a majority of the population is of Mexican origin (Census definition), Trump did 6.6 points better in 2020 than in 2016. But outside of Texas, majority-Mexican-origin counties (mostly California) actually swung about half a point away from Trump.
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Another way to see this:
county-level correlation between % Hispanic/Latino and swing toward Trump (excl clearly incomplete counties):
0.32 overall
0.16 without Miami-Dade
0.01 without Miami-Dade or Texas
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New employment data show widely shared labor-market pain. I think the K-shaped recovery story -- that the top third or quarter is just fine -- is too simplistic.
Short thread focusing on education levels, using new Sept CPS microdata.
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In general, unemployment has risen more for people with less education. Older workers with college degrees have seen the smallest rise.
But unemployment is up several points for younger people with college degrees, too.
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Core unemployment -- which strips out temporary layoffs -- is up similarly across all three education levels. Headline unemployment shows a bigger gap by education, but some of that is temporary.
Employment has fallen significantly more for mothers than for fathers. Big gender gap for parents, regardless of marital status.
New CPS microdata for Sept.
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Prime-age EPOP (employment-population ratio for age 25-54) has fallen several more points for women with kids than for men with kids. The gender gap in EPOP decline is bigger for people with kids than for people without kids.
(repeating same graph)
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This parent gender gap in the labor market started early. In February, prime-age EPOP was 19.5 points lower for mothers than for fathers. Employment fell more for mothers than for fathers from February to May, and the gap widened. Gap has persisted since May.
Postings have recovered in sectors that support the stay-at-home economy (driving, construction, warehouse) and in services that had been deferred (dental, beauty & wellness).
Yet hospitality & tourism job postings are still down nearly 50%.
Higher-wage sectors are were slower to fire but now slower to hire. Postings down most in higher-wage sectors, even though employment (per BLS) down most in lower-wage sectors.