Employment has fallen significantly more for mothers than for fathers. Big gender gap for parents, regardless of marital status.
New CPS microdata for Sept.
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Prime-age EPOP (employment-population ratio for age 25-54) has fallen several more points for women with kids than for men with kids. The gender gap in EPOP decline is bigger for people with kids than for people without kids.
(repeating same graph)
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This parent gender gap in the labor market started early. In February, prime-age EPOP was 19.5 points lower for mothers than for fathers. Employment fell more for mothers than for fathers from February to May, and the gap widened. Gap has persisted since May.
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A few differences in this analysis from @ernietedeschi@mikemadowitz threads yesterday. I'm looking at the prime-age EPOP ratio, rather than absolute numbers. Survey composition effects should be less of an issue with the ratio, and in fact there's no dramatic Sept move.
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Also, microdata let you define demographic groups, so I'm looking at presence of children at home, not just marital status. Presence of children, not marital status, is the big driver of the pandemic labor-market gender gap.
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The first chart looked at Feb-Sept this year vs last year, as quick & dirty seasonal adjustment. Last year prime-age EPOP rose more from Aug to Sept for people (both men & women) with kids than without. But the gender gap story doesn't hinge on that little seasonality fix.
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Lots more to dig into of course, and eager to have more eyes on these data.
But punchline is that the pandemic labor-market gender gap for parents is wide and persistent, and opened early in the pandemic. It's a 2020 story, not a September story.
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New employment data show widely shared labor-market pain. I think the K-shaped recovery story -- that the top third or quarter is just fine -- is too simplistic.
Short thread focusing on education levels, using new Sept CPS microdata.
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In general, unemployment has risen more for people with less education. Older workers with college degrees have seen the smallest rise.
But unemployment is up several points for younger people with college degrees, too.
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Core unemployment -- which strips out temporary layoffs -- is up similarly across all three education levels. Headline unemployment shows a bigger gap by education, but some of that is temporary.
Postings have recovered in sectors that support the stay-at-home economy (driving, construction, warehouse) and in services that had been deferred (dental, beauty & wellness).
Yet hospitality & tourism job postings are still down nearly 50%.
Higher-wage sectors are were slower to fire but now slower to hire. Postings down most in higher-wage sectors, even though employment (per BLS) down most in lower-wage sectors.
Job postings for lower-wage jobs have rebounded, while higher-wage jobs have struggled. Lower-wage hiring might respond more quickly to shifts in demand, while higher-wage hiring is more frozen by longer-term uncertainty.