With 6 days of zero cases, its stupid to assume Vic has achieved elimination. But 1-2 weeks from now, if we find ourselves staring at a line of donuts on the calendar, it'd be stupid to rule it out. At this point National Cabinet may want to reconsider the #covid19aus strategy.
Now, some would say they already should consider it, but I have very low expectations of our federal government.
'Wouldn't elimination mean doing the same thing we've already done?' I'd say yes and no, \mostly no. We could have a national standardised approach to #testtraceisolate & thoroughly reassess Infection Prevention Control in high risk settings (factories/food/health/aged services)
I suppose what really changes here is that any increase in effort to control #covid19aus will now have a disproportionate payoff. The difference between having 20 cases nationally at any given time (a very small number) versus 0 cases for 3 weeks is enormous imo.
If we end up tantalizingly close to elimination (which I admit is unlikely) it might finally give our governments the motivation to get their shit together.
If it fails, boohoo. We end up with world class nationally standardised #testtraceisolate and infection prevention/control
Does this necessarily entail lockdowns for NSW? not necessarily IMO (i'm not sure). it might just mean several weeks of hyperaggressive cluster management + upstream contact tracing assisted with antibody testing (which I believe nsw has been doing at times!)
To be clear, I think it's quite unlikely we'll be staring at a continuous line of donuts in 1 week and VERY unlikely in 2 weeks.
But the argument still stands if we get zero community transmission for the next few weeks (which is still unlikely imo)

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More from @drvyom

4 Nov
There it is. 500,000 signatures for the #murdoch royal commission. Equivalent to almost 2% of our population. Let’s make it happen Image
Can’t wait to see the Olympic level bullshit-gymnastics from the libs to get out of this.
Next: federal ICAC
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
Wow it’s actually gonna hit 500k Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
These 1 hour limits need to be reviewed. Should test all customers even without symptoms. Most of those infected (if any) will test positive by day 5. No isolation required unless this becomes a cluster. #covid19aus
This is something both New South Wales and Victoria should strongly consider. We have so few cases that being aggressive with cluster management comes with almost no cost. #dropthehammer on every potential cluster.
Folks the one hour time limit is completely arbitrary. Not supported by any meaningful data.
Now that’s Perfectly understandable at a time when testing resources are in short supply - you need to draw the line somewhere - but this is not a problem right now.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
Questions for tomorrow's presser, pls consider!
1/ Vic CMO said y'day we might be the only nation using n95 masks on COVID wards. Considering it's widely known that Singapore, S.Korea, HK etc adopted this practice in MARCH, is it concerning that our top med officer isn't aware?
2/ How's the trial of isolating 'contacts of contacts' progressing in Kilmore progressing? Do you have plans to roll it out elsewhere? Are you considering significant $ incentives to encourage people to comply, as it might be difficult to convince contacts of contacts to isolate?
3/ Workplaces: Looking for infections in hi-risk settings is critical when we open. Gov announced asymptomatic testing of 95 such businesses 2 weeks ago.
But atm, owners can only ask 25% of workforce to be tested per month. How can we increase this? Can new antigen tests help?
Read 10 tweets
13 Oct
Stunning claim today by senior Vic health official today "We have the strongest PPE guidance...in the world.. one of the only, if not the only place I'm aware of where people are wearing them (N95 masks)... in our COVID wards".
But then: (1/n) abc.net.au/radio/melbourn…
These are the guidelines from Singapore General Hospital, laid out for the world to learn from in MARCH. (2/n)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
These are guidelines for Tan Tock Seng Hospital (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
13 Oct
What's the initial source of the Box Hill outbreak? Was it a patient, or a staff member who was previously working on a COVID ward? Do we know?
(This is relevant as staff's masks were not fit tested when working on the COVID ward. Nor were they 'co-horted') #covidvic #springst
@healthcare_19 @NeelaJan @an_leavy any news about origin? cmo dismissed that fit testing would've made a difference as he said outbreak was on general ward. but that assumes infection didn't originate from HCW who had been working on covid ward prior.
If the origins are uncertain then how can the Chief medical Officer state that fit testing of masks is irrelevant to the box hill outbreak, as he did this morning on abc radio???
Read 4 tweets

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