Has UK really slowed down trade talks with EU until #USElectionResults become crystal clear? No, says UK. We don’t get that impression, says EU. Yet sources in Brussels insist the UK did put the brakes on intensive negotiations this week. So what is going on? #Brexit /1
As always, it depends who you speak to. EU diplomats wonder aloud whether No10 is hedging its bets on the best (or least worst) timing to make concessions necessary to agree a trade deal with EU. Brussels can see the difficulties the PM already faces over Lockdown2 with own MPs/2
EU voices muse whether the PM is waiting till all backs against the wall time-wise before clinching the deal. For domestic political reasons. « Boris Johnson is certainly not personally involved in haggling over herring or individual fishing issues » remarked one EU diplomat /3
But UK sources push back at this analysis. They speak instead of the « natural ebb and flow » of negotiations and insist UK has continued to be constructive. They say the EU describes talks as constructive only when things going their way /4
Talks have not broken off altogether this week. Technical negotiations continue today and tomorrow. Chief negotiators Frost and Barnier are expected to speak by phone. The next round of talks are scheduled to be in London. Timetable described as ‘very fluid’ /5
Expectations are: talks will resume Monday. Teams worked the last two weekends. Not this coming one. Negotiating week predicted to be ‘intensive’ BUT /6
With both sides agreeing big gaps remain on all 3 outstanding issues (fish, competition regulations and governance of deal) it’s clear the latest (in long line of) cited cut-off point for talks - the EU had said that was 15 Nov - will be busted and further delayed /7
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Germany‘s Economy Minister and France‘s Europe Minister separately observe that Europe cant wait for its fate to be decided by politics in US. Saying that 4 years of Trump presidency have shown Europe it needs to determine own path when comes to economy, climate, tech and more/1
Clearly they know Europe stronger with US by its side eg on China, Iran, climate. Their argument esp tricky when comes to security . Europe has looked to US to have its back in security terms since WW2. Having Trump in White House has led Europeans to doubt that assumption /2
EU attempts to create own defence force are fraught with countless difficulties: practical, political, logistic Trump isn’t first US President to call on Europeans to spend more on Defence but Europeans fear if Trump returns to office he might weaken or destroy NATO altogether./3
NEW: Angela Merkel has just announced a month long partial lockdown nationwide. Schools and shops to stay open but bars, restaurants and leisure facilities must close #corona /1
Merkel spoke after meeting regional leaders. This partial lockdown is an attempt to stop patchy regional response /2
Under new measures, private gatherings will be limited to members of two households, with a maximum of ten people. Merkel asked people not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Hotels in Germany will be closed to tourists /3
A No.10 spokesman said: „We have studied carefully the statement by Michel Barnier to the European Parliament this morning. As the EU’s Chief Negotiator his words are authoritative.“ /2
„As to the substance, we note that Mr Barnier set out the principles that the EU has brought to this negotiation, and that he also acknowledged the UK’s established red lines. It is clear that significant gaps remain between our positions in the most difficult areas“ /3
EU+UK chief negotiators are speaking this afternoon. What will it take to re-start talks? I’d argue it’s not about specifics. It’s about political will. Do the PM and EU really want a deal? If answer is yes, then both sides know they must compromise + a deal is there to be done/1
Big problem is that both sides are so suspicious of each other. EU doesn’t trust UK gov to keep its word (it points to Internal Market Bill as a case in point). UK accuses EU of not accepting its sovereignty and trying to keep post #Brexit UK tied to EU rules. Both have a point/2
As @DavidHenigUK wrote this weekend. But the EU’s level playing field demands come as no surprise to UK. They were in the political declaration signed by both sides last year outlining intentions for their future relations. Brussels has rowed back on maximalist demands /3
Chief UK negotiator David Frost was quick to react last night - objecting o EU leaders’ tougher-sounding-than-could-have-been formal conclusions to their #Brexit discussion but since when are politicians declarations taken without a pinch or two of salt? /1
EU leaders also play to their domestic gallery. This is the last stage of the trade negotiations. We’re poised ahead of the chapter of Big Compromises. Neither the U.K. nor the EU want to go first. Both want to signal to their home crowd that THEIR interests are being protected/2
Macron is focused on upcoming French presidential elections. His main rival: a nationalist eurosceptic. When he insists publicly about maintaining French fishing rights in UK waters because they didn’t choose #Brexit -his aim is to sound nationalist + show leaving EU is costly /3
PM leaves threat of walking away from talks with the EU in the air. Following his call this evening with European Commission and European Council Presidents, his spokesman said the PM had noted the desirability of a deal, but /1
“expressed his disappointment that more progress had not been made over the past two weeks. The Prime Minister said that he looked forward to hearing the outcome of the European Council (this weeks EU leaders summit) /2
and would reflect before setting out the UK’s next steps in the light of his statement of 7 September.” That was the date when the PM said there was no point in talking all autumn and that a deal should be visible by mid October /3