Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

EU+UK chief negotiators are speaking this afternoon. What will it take to re-start talks? I’d argue it’s not about specifics. It’s about political will. Do the PM and EU really want a deal? If answer is yes, then both sides know they must compromise + a deal is there to be done/1

Big problem is that both sides are so suspicious of each other. EU doesn’t trust UK gov to keep its word (it points to Internal Market Bill as a case in point). UK accuses EU of not accepting its sovereignty and trying to keep post #Brexit UK tied to EU rules. Both have a point/2

As @DavidHenigUK wrote this weekend. But the EU’s level playing field demands come as no surprise to UK. They were in the political declaration signed by both sides last year outlining intentions for their future relations. Brussels has rowed back on maximalist demands /3

eg dynamic alignment for state aid But UK must know Brussels will not compromise on protecting single market -not just in practical terms but also so other trade partners can see the EU has strict rules and more recalcitrant EU member states can see its serious too. Equally../4

EU must know PM needs to show a win here. It was short-sighted of EU leaders to put onus of compromising solely on the UK in their summit conclusions last week and to intentionally remove the word ‘intensive’ from their call to continue negotiations /5

Yes, they did that to show they weren’t ‘bowing to UK pressure’
as one diplomat put it to me. Boris Johnson has declared the summit a deadline for talks. Not the EU. BUT that decision by EU leaders was clearly a misstep. The PM says the EU can now come to him if ../6

It fundamentally changes its position. Is it enough to declare EU wants
A) Intensive talks. If so, Barnier said that over + over in his press conference on Thursday) and B) EU admission that it needs to compromise too. Not only UK. If so, Angela Merkel and Dutch PM Mark Rutte /7

alluded to that at the summit? There’s little expectation in Brussels that real negotiations could now happen this week. At least first half. It’s been a frustration of EU chief negotiator Barnier that EU coastal nations wouldn’t let him start talking fish compromises already /8

It’s an open secret in EU circles -as Macron admitted on Friday -that it will have to compromise on fish. Fish will be a ‘win’ for the PM whatever the final deal looks like (if there is a deal in the end). Still to be negotiated is how big a UK win / EU compromise of course /9

But EU coastal states have been demanding that the UK move more on competition regulations BEFORE they openly talk fish concessions. Might they now move earlier with window closing on possibility of a deal and cost of no deal being far bigger than cost of smaller fish quotas? /10

Important to EU coastal states was being SEEN by their fishing communities to be standing up for their rights in a deal with UK. Arguably they can now say they’ve done that but that now the chances of getting ANY deal and therefore ANY quotas at all in UK waters is at risk /11

If EU openly engages on fish, that’ll help UK engage in other tough issues of greater importance to EU as a whole - like governance and level playing field -especially state aid. If the UK doesn’t budge at all - there’ll be no deal anyway /12