Announcement = furlough scheme is extended until end of March at 80% of previous wages. This basically completes the slow u-turn over the last few months
So he's decided it's too complex to try and make furlough tied to specific restrictions and gone for the "keep it everywhere right through the winter" option
Self-employment grants also increased to 80% of previous earnings for three months to January (doubling them from the planned 40% a week ago and the announced 55% a few days back). This scheme is far too generous to some, while excluding hundreds of thousands badly needing help
Chancellor rightly scraps the poorly targeted and very expensive Job Retention Bonus.
Big picture: economic policy is now set back on full on lockdown mode.
The existence of devolution on public health policy is a BIG driver of why we've ended up here. Govt can't coordinate economic/public health measures and obviously decided trying to do so via rules was too complex.
How have we ended up with this messy, slow and steady u-turn over the past two months? Optimism bias + lack of contingency planning theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Detail of today's announcements: gov.uk/government/new…

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More from @TorstenBell

5 Nov
More I ponder it, more the full reversal of economic policy today to where we were in lockdown I (ie full furlough everywhere for every sector) is extraordinary
It's hard to keep track of the many different furlough schemes... so forget the schemes names and focus on specifically what has changed today and for which firms
For the hardest hit sectors that are legally required to close in lockdown II (hospitality/leisure/most retail) or tier 3 areas post lockdown (hospitality/leisure) NOTHING has changed
Read 10 tweets
15 Oct
The spread of local lockdowns is rightly seeing everyone raising the issue of inadequacy of economic support, from local leaders to Louise Casey. But it's really important to focus on the right problem...
Because it's easy to communicate/attack debates are focusing on the LEVEL of furlough support (falling from 80% to 66%). This is important but the much bigger issue is the breadth of who gets that support at all. Our huge problem is eligibility not levels. Here's why
First, eligibility is what matters because there is a gaping chasm in the cash you get if you receive the 66% of previous earnings via the Job Support Scheme. Those not eligible and losing work as a result get roughly half the support of those on the JSS. HALF!
Read 5 tweets
3 Oct
Cutting benefit by £1,000 for millions of families - some history lessons... A thread resolutionfoundation.org/publications/d…
It's exactly 5yrs since G. Osborne arrived at Tory conference under fire for plans to cut tax credits by £1,000+. A month later he'd u-turned. Today Rishi Sunak begins his (virtual) conference defending similar plans. He should u-turn too and here's 5 reasons why he probably will
1. Sunak’s planned cut to benefits is MUCH bigger than Osborne’s in 2015. This time 6m households will lose £1,000 each next April vs 3.3 million 5yrs back - that adds up to an £8bn income reduction this time vs less than £4bn last time
Read 8 tweets
28 Sep
Definitely no tension between abolishing inheritance tax and paying NHS staff more. None at all.
4% of estates paid ANY inheritance tax in 2015-16. FOUR. Scrapping it costs around £5bn - 40% of which would go to just 1,700 estates worth over £2 million (who would get an AVERAGE tax cut of just over £1 million)
Where would benefits from scrapping inheritance tax? London and the South East. Levelling up it is not Image
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
Full @resfoundation analysis of the Chancellor's Winter Economy Plan (with thanks to the team for sleep loss overnight). The short version: the policy does not match the rhetoric on protecting "viable jobs". A thread... resolutionfoundation.org/publications/t…
Economic context matters here - we're not living a V-shaped recovery. After swift bounce backs from total economic stagnation in lockdown, the recovery was slowing before the return of rising virus cases & social distancing restrictions confirmed difficult months lie ahead Image
The Chancellor job was therefore to bring economic policy back in line with both economic reality and social distancing restrictions - which he rightly did by extending support for firms and workers beyond cliff-edges at end October/early November
Read 16 tweets
24 Sep
Chancellor's Job Support Scheme is a big deal that will (temporarily) stem but not halt the rise in unemployment coming. A thread...
This is basically an extension and reformatting of the partial furlough bit of the Job Retention Scheme. So long as a worker is brought back for a 1/3 of their previous hours, the govt covers 1/3 of their lost wages for hours they don't work. The employer covers another 1/3
The odd thing about this scheme (given all the short time working headlines/references to Germany) is not really a short hours work scheme (ie one that encourages employers to cut hours rather than jobs) when considered in isolation
Read 8 tweets

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