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5 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Big news.
Another u-turn - but one which will be welcomed by many employees and businesses. Though they will ask why it had to come so late. After all, many companies already laid off employees whose jobs could have been saved.
More on this on @skynews with my colleague @pkelso
Key info on the extension of the furlough scheme until March:
-Employers only cover NI & pensions. Biz may have to contribute more from Jan (but, perhaps to avoid future u-turns, no concrete plans to ratchet it down)
- Employees laid off since 23 Sep can be rehired & furloughed
- Job retention bonus shelved
- More support for self-employed
And the Treasury wants us all (esp the self-employed) to know THIS WILL ALL COST A LOT OF MONEY
I like the way these days when HMT announces economic policy it also produces puff quotes from various people on what a good decision it’s taking.
A bit like those review excerpts you get on the cover of books
DECISIVE ACTION - Make UK
UNPRECEDENTED! - Kristalina Georgieva
Sorry to be one of those people who tweets something they wrote ages ago and say: LOOK, YOU SEE.
But look, you see: thetimes.co.uk/article/ee98d0…

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More from @EdConwaySky

Ed Conway Profile picture
6 Nov
Transparency, worst case scenarios, & why govt is treading a dangerous path over #COVID19.
This is the longest thread I've ever posted.
But I think it may be among the most important.
Please do read and share if it strikes a chord.
This stuff affects all of us.
Deep breath... 🧵
Before we go any further let's get something out of the way: I'm not making a point here abt whether govt is right or wrong to impose lockdown. Like most of you, I can see strong arguments for & against but respect that others are better informed than I am to make these calls
This is really about something else: trust. Lockdowns, like em or not, won't work if no-one trusts the process and doesn't comply. It would be the worst of both worlds - economic damage but limited epidemiological effect. But that trust is earned. And easily lost.
Read 33 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
5 Nov
The count is going down to the line in Georgia. Here’s something we did live on @skynews last night, digging into county level data to show why that race is very much on (and since then it’s got even tighter!)
Yes that’s right election geeks, at @skynews we ARE showing you detailed county level data on the US election, to give the most granular, detailed analysis of any UK network. @SophyRidgeSky is currently there at the big screen. I’ll be back later. TUNE IN.
Here’s @SophyRidgeSky with one of my favourite graphics of the election: showing how the race for AZ has narrowed in Trump’s favour and how the race for PA has narrowed in Biden’s favour.
You’ve heard the phrase “going down to the wire”. Well: there’s the wire - in those charts…
Read 6 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
30 Oct
How does one reconcile this with the fact that case growth was actually SLOWER than in that "worst case scenario" (on basis of pretty much every measure inc @ONS survey)?
As @JeremyFarrar admits, communication of this stuff hasn't been great.
Lots of questions still unanswered.
Here's that famous illustration from Sep.
The black & grey lines show you what actually transpired.
I’ve included @ONS cases growth for comparison, mapped onto the baseline @uksciencechief used.
How, on the basis of actual case data, can one claim that trajectory was surpassed?
The point is not to dispute the substance of @JeremyFarrar’s thread. And yes I’m being somewhat pedantic. But these details matter.
What is the point of publishing a “worst-case scenario” and then claiming it’s been surpassed when the numbers show it hasn’t?
Genuine question…
Read 9 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
29 Oct
NEW: I have seen internal NHS data which reveals that the number of #COVID19 cases in care homes in Leeds has now exceeded the peak it hit in the spring.
It’s the first solid evidence that the disease is again spreading rapidly into the care sector.
news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
I’ve tweeted many depressing charts in this pandemic but this is among the worst.
I’ve obtained unpublished NHS data showing that the number of care home #COVID19 cases in Leeds has leapt so dramatically in the past week that they have exceeded the levels during the first wave.
My TV live on this story.
Hopeful interpretation is this rise is partly explained by more testing and that many of the cases are among younger care workers or asymptomatic residents.
Scary interpretation is that efforts to shield the elderly from this second wave are now failing
Read 5 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
28 Oct
The green line on this chart might help explain why Germany is imposing a #COVID19 lockdown.
Unlike in the first wave of the disease, its case trajectory is steeper than in countries like France, Spain, UK etc.
However, it’s locking down comparatively earlier than some others
If you want a sense of what many European leaders hope for from these short term #COVID lockdowns, look at the light blue line here - Israel.
Cases were rising fast there. A month-long lockdown was imposed and new case growth dropped. The lockdown is now being eased.
For those who like to keep tabs on Sweden and its #COVID19 situation (I’ve heard that’s a “thing”), here it is. In the same pack as most other countries. Denmark there too.
BUT NB: Norway’s caseload is so low it currently doesn’t even make it above the line in this chart
Read 4 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
16 Oct
NEW:
IMF boss tells Rishi Sunak: "now is not yet the time to balance the books"
She warns of "massive bankruptcies and unemployment" if govts around the world withdraw economic support amid #COVID19's second surge.
Exclusive interview with @KGeorgieva on @skynews imminently
IMF head @KGeorgieva tells me there is still time to salvage a Brexit deal - even tho No10 says talks are over. “These are the last few weeks of negotiations; there is still a possibility to continue to work towards that agreement
“The clock is ticking but it’s not yet midnight.”
When considering the IMF MD's comments to @skynews tonight, perhaps worth reflecting that less than a fortnight ago @RishiSunak gave his first Tory conference speech. His standout message?
"We will always balance the books".
Read 4 tweets

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