My own version of data science nerd reports for remaining states. First, Georgia. As of the latest report, estimating the remaining vote, Biden needs 57% of outstanding votes to tie Trump. On the last batch he got 65%, a great sign!
Next, Pennsylvania. The big population counties are slow to come in. Biden needs 60% to tie, and the last two estimates of his return rates with no results in from big counties had his actual rates at 61.4% and 56%. These were mostly from smaller counties, so, OK.
Better: If you estimate the amount of Biden votes left in the bigger blue counties, you get from 146000-171000 ranging from a conservative Biden return rate by county (he is at 79% statewide) to the 79% average rate everywhere. Great! He needs 115000!
Finally, if you estimate the amount of votes coming from just Philadelphia, Allegheny, Bucks, Delaware, & Center, which have from 83-94% counted, you get 137-158K. Enough!
Footnote 1: Montgomery, Chester, Dauphin, Lackawanna have gone strongly Biden, but are all at >98% counted.
Footnote 2: Biden absentee votes are coming in strong even in red counties. So unlikely for Trump to make up that difference.
Moral: be patient with the slower counts from big counties in GA, PA. We can still get those states!
PS- will quote tweet from above tweet to provide updates if you interested.
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