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5 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
UPDATE: 1:57 pm - pulse of votes just flipped Lehigh county blue in PA, went blue in 2016, expect more. Day started at Trump + 115069, now down to 90542 with lots of votes to count.

Also: watch Monroe county - currently in Trump column but went blue in 2016. Many votes there
The big blue county votes have been stagnant for a while. Adding Lehigh to the pool of blue counties with votes remaining pushes estimates of available Biden *gains* from 136K (conservative)-159K (average absentee return used everywhere). Plenty there for a Biden win in PA.
75% of those latest votes went to Biden - he needs 59% of remaining votes to tie Trump.
Finally, court order prevents Allegheny Co (Pittsburgh) from counting about 30000 absentee ballots first sent in error to the wrong addresses and then resent. They must be checked 1x1 to make sure there are no duplicates.

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More from @DrDinD

DrDinD 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 Profile picture
5 Nov
My own version of data science nerd reports for remaining states. First, Georgia. As of the latest report, estimating the remaining vote, Biden needs 57% of outstanding votes to tie Trump. On the last batch he got 65%, a great sign!
Next, Pennsylvania. The big population counties are slow to come in. Biden needs 60% to tie, and the last two estimates of his return rates with no results in from big counties had his actual rates at 61.4% and 56%. These were mostly from smaller counties, so, OK.
Better: If you estimate the amount of Biden votes left in the bigger blue counties, you get from 146000-171000 ranging from a conservative Biden return rate by county (he is at 79% statewide) to the 79% average rate everywhere. Great! He needs 115000!
Read 8 tweets
DrDinD 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 Profile picture
14 Mar
This article contains appropriate skepticism about #COVID19 reinfection.

First important note: reinfection is reflected in .2% of cases in China, and one case each in Japan & S Korea.

Most likely reasons are testing errors or premature release.

latimes.com/world-nation/s…
US based infectious disease experts confirm likely errors:

"They say testing errors are more likely to blame β€” either false negatives that resulted in patients being discharged too early, or false positives when they retested and were taken back into hospital."
"What’s more likely is that people are being released from hospitals while still carrying dormant fragments of the disease that are not infectious but resemble the virus when put through a nucleic acid test,Β "
Read 8 tweets
DrDinD 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊 Profile picture
1 Feb 18
Here is my thread of optimism for #TheStateOfTheResistance – it is easy to let the events get us down, but: We. Are. Mighty. #StrongerTogether. #BlueWave2018 #BluNami #BlueTsunami2018 1/
Reason 1 for optimism: We are all worried about Trump firing Mueller after, perhaps, he first fires Rosenstein. First, he is getting advised NOT to fire Rosenstein. By his own WH, & by many congressional GOP. newsweek.com/rosenstein-tru… 2/
Second, even if he fires Rosenstein, he may have to go through A LOT of DOJ people before he finds anyone willing to fire Mueller. Once you go below Sessions, the appointees like Wray, Rosenstein, are no shrinking violets, & not hardcore Trumpists. 3/
Read 25 tweets

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