Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 233

1/ Today was an amazing @UCSF Dept. of Medicine grand rounds. We discussed the election and its impact on Covid & healthcare with an all-star crew: @KBibbinsDomingo, @ASlavitt, and @ZekeEmanuel. The 1 hour video is here:
2/ I’d normally tweet a long summary of the chat, but I’ll be honest: between obsessively watching cable (how does @JohnKingCNN stay awake?) & refreshing this addictive swing-state calculator (tinyurl.com/y5e3lecj try it!), I don’t have the energy. So just a few take-aways.
3/ I hope you’ll find the time to watch the far-ranging discussion. We covered how a President Biden (now a near-certainty, as both PA and GA are poised to flip) will and should handle the transition and the early days of his presidency, both in terms of healthcare and Covid.
4/ If the Dems don’t win the Senate (it seems likely they won’t), there are big limits on what they’ll be able to do on healthcare. Both Andy & Zeke believe that McConnell & friends are more likely to be obstructionist than cooperative – they still see it as a winning strategy.
5/ Even so, there are things that Biden can do – expand open enrollment, for example. But the promise of a big health bill is dead w/ a red Senate. That’s particularly problematic if the Supreme Court chooses to strike down all/part of Obamacare next week tinyurl.com/y5rhrgqz
6/ Kirsten described the impact of disparities in Covid – and made clear that, while there are general issues surrounding minority groups and socioeconomic determinants of health, we will need to be more nuanced in considering such groups, their needs, and how to reach them….
7/ Why? The election clearly showed that thinking of "minorities" as a monolith is wrong. Even thinking of the Latinx community as a monolith is inadequate, a point made clear by the Cuban vote in Miami (where Biden did poorly) vs. the Latino community in AZ (where he did well).
8/ Lots of interesting talk about vaccines: getting them distributed, convincing people to take them, and more. @ 49:30, @ZekeEmanuel described why he's confident that the Biden team will get the distribution part right. “If there’s one thing I know about Joe Biden," said Zeke...
9/ … "it’s that he does know how to put together a team of very competent people… and he’s very practical, he’s not doctrinaire.” [Zeke worked closely with Biden during the Obama administration.]
10/ The entire discussion was terrific, but if your time is limited, I’d highlight the last 10 minutes (starting @ 50:40), in which each of the speakers talked about big picture issues & the future: particularly how to deal with the fundamental mistrust in science and expertise.
11/ I was particularly moved by @ASlavitt's discussion of America's empathy gap (starts @ 51:40): “One of the comments I get every once in a while," he said, "is, ‘Well, I don’t know anybody who has died of Covid-19.

And my response is, ‘you do, but you don’t know their names.”
12/ “These are the people that grow your food…, who work in your store, maybe you know their first name… And you don’t know their parents and those who live with them.’”

While knowing people who died of Covid shouldn’t matter, it does. Somehow, we need to make it matter less.
13/ So many hard things to do, yet the discussion left me hopeful, particularly as I think about having an empathic and competent administration that focuses on unifying the country around fighting a common enemy: the virus. It won’t be easy, but new leadership is a start.
14/ As for me, I’m at Fauci 1.7 (figure). Not ideal, but best I’ve been in mths. I'll be back Monday w/ an update, incl. SF Covid situation (which is reassuringly stable). Till then, stay safe & sane. And try to pull yourself away from the election calculator long enough to eat.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Bob Wachter

Bob Wachter Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Bob_Wachter

3 Nov
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 230

1/ @NateSilver538 & team @538politics tell us that Biden has a 90% chance of winning. If he does, many things will change, but when it comes to the unmitigated disaster that is the scourge of Covid , it’s important to avoid magical thinking.
2/ A Biden administration won’t be able to turn this thing around on a dime. So today, after an overview of the state of the pandemic (SF and then the broader nation), I’ll give you my take on how a Biden administration may approach Covid in its initial days.
3/ Let’s start with the view from SF. Given porous borders, with the rest of the U.S. surging it would be shocking to see no uptick in our numbers. So my real question is not whether we’re seeing a few more cases – we are. It’s whether the uptick is manageable, or out of control.
Read 25 tweets
28 Oct
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 224

1/ When I walk or drive around SF, I see evidence of why Covid cases & deaths are the lowest of any big city in the U.S. Masking is near universal, Ubers & Lyfts have their windows wide open, & there are pop-up outdoor eating spaces everywhere.
2/ So, as we enter a 3rd wave that's blanketing the nation, I’ll focus today on San Francisco – specifically the question of whether SF can continue its remarkable Covid success in the face of a national surge, one far more geographically distributed than the prior two waves.
3/ I’ll go out on a limb and say yes… and hope that I’m not proven wrong.

History is with us: when all of California began to surge in June, SF was able to turn it around – whereas much of the rest of CA didn’t and was hit far harder. Ditto for the southern states.
Read 21 tweets
27 Oct
Note that as hospitals get overwhelmed – as appears to be happening in many regions – the welcome fall in mortality rates we've seen since March may erode. While some of the mortality improvements can be explained by proven benefits of dexamethasone (+/- remdesivir) and... (1/3)
... changing demographics (younger & healthier patients), much of it was due to improvements in hospital care and less overwhelmed MD and nursing staffs. If hospitals get hammered, as they were in NY in the spring, I'd expect an uptick in these mortality rates, sadly. (2/3)
Today's curves (cases top; deaths bottom) show the huge surge in cases & usual lag in deaths (though deaths starting to rise). Whether these curves ultimately rise in sync will hinge on whether hospitals & ICUs can avoid being overwhelmed. Current situation isn't promising. (3/3)
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
I've flown a few times based on my perception of low – but non-zero – risk. This new report of a big outbreak on a 7-hour Irish flight tinyurl.com/y4fs2y7f doesn't change the overall risk calculus (still very low, if passengers wear masks) but adds to the evidence that...(1/3)
... Covid risk is not evenly distributed. The average risk of an encounter is actually a combo of many, many low-risk encounters, combined a few high-risk ones (super-spreader events) tinyurl.com/yxmykmu9. The problem is that there's no good way to predict super-... (2/3)
... spreader events, so we're stuck with dealing w/ "average" risk. This paper tinyurl.com/y4ce3mwh, which estimates the risk of catching Covid from a 2-hr flight at ~1-in-5000, is still what I go by. Based on it, I won't fly for fun or to a mtg, but will fly if crucial. (3/3)
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 220

1/ Yesterday was @UCSF Medicine Grand Rounds– we covered the 3rd wave (w/ particular focus on situation in Wisconsin) and how to assess and manage risk in Covid. The conference (70 min) is available here: tinyurl.com/y2to6y9y Worth watching.
2/ @ 5:00: First, an update by George Rutherford on the current surge. The U.S. is now at >60K cases/d. This map, from @nytimes, shows that while biggest surge is in the Midwest, unlike surges 1 and 2 this is really a national surge, with only a few exceptions (one of them CA).
3/ @ 7:30: In California, “no evidence of a 3rd wave…yet.” “I have a feeling that we’re teetering at the precipice, and we need to be absolutely positively clear that we’re doing everything we can to avoid infection.”
Read 23 tweets
22 Oct
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 218

1/ Excellent @washingtonpost piece today on Operation Warp Speed, & its (likely) success in moving us from discovery of a new virus to having one or more safe & effective vaccines available in about a year, God willing. tinyurl.com/yybpgcat
2/ Yes, that’s really me quoted below, praising the Trump administration for OSW's success. Bestowing such praise was not easy, since I agree with @KamalaHarris that our overall Covid response may well be the greatest failure of any presidential administration in U.S. history.
3/ But on this one, the administration has gotten it right. While some will quibble w/ choices of which vaccines to bet on, the investments made seem sound – particularly the choice to offer funds to decrease the risk of the companies’ vaccine development process (“de-risking”)…
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!