Thread by @jonworth

The conventional wisdom* over the past few weeks has been that a Biden win makes a Brexit Deal more likely

But, to borrow a phrase from Will Davies, what is going on in UK politics just now is not normal

With Biden on the verge of the Presidency, a thread...

The conventional argument: Biden wins = multilateralism wins, it's a repudiation of go-it-alone belligerence in int. affairs, Biden will offer an 🕊 to Europe - and in that context Britain should not be left alone.

Tories also think Biden makes a 🇬🇧🇺🇸 trade deal less likely**

The other side, conventional wisdom: had Trump won, that would have kept the dream of a 🇬🇧🇺🇸 trade deal alive**, and mini-Trump Johnson would have had an ally in Washington for the next 4 years, so the UK's price to go it alone would be lower

But let's re-examine that with regard to Biden

Yesterday @JGForsyth - always close to Tory Party sources - penned this for The Times

"The first phone calls [from Biden] are likely to go to them [Macron & Merkel], not to Johnson."

thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…

The Spectator came out with this bile earlier today

"it turns out, in this morbid year of disease and crisis, a zombie candidate is exactly what the majority of Americans wanted."

spectator.co.uk/article/biden-…

When Biden talked about Ireland a couple of months ago, the right in the UK reacted with things like this...

reaction.life/bumbling-biden…

This front page editorial in yesterday's Times also fits the pattern - one long uncouth rant against Biden

And then there are the MPs on the Tory benches who decided to *not* formulate their tweets more wisely

Scott Benton MP

https://twitter.com/ScottBentonMP/status/1306627419311427584

Andrew Rosindell MP

https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800

And as if that were not enough, have a look at the entire Twitter thread of the Bruges Group @BrugesGroup

Tweeting out every possible conspiracy imaginable from the Republicans

I'd expect hardline Europhobia from them, but not this

Meanwhile the Number 10 spokesman cannot bring himself to say that all votes in the USA should even be counted

https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1324697358895108097

It essentially boils down to this.

Do the Tories - even if they disagree with some of his stances - see Biden and his victory as *legitimate*?

It seems to me that a good chunk of the party, or at least its commentariat outriders, do not.

Wed this to their almost religious belief in Brexit and you have a heady mix.

We are right. We were right. We are still going to show everyone we were right - even Biden! - and what do we have to fear from going it alone?

Then set all of that against the background of game playing in BXL

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1324635806749937665

*and* the House of Lords voting next week on the Internal Market Bill...

*and* all UK Govt run by a PM never clear headed in his decisions, as @RoryStewartUK pointed out this week...

It strikes me that the Tory Party is so far up the Brexit creek that even Biden's likely victory offering them a paddle back out towards a sensible outcome is not something they are ready to take

We might yet get a Brexit Deal, but Biden's likely win isn't hastening it

/ends

* - including from Eurasia Group's prime purveyor of Whitehall insider gossip

** - I am not judging whether this is indeed so. All that matters here is the importance in Tory minds of if it's so