Thread by @apsmunro

A criticism of the data regarding children and #COVID19 from the first surge is that it was acquired with schools closed

Its now surge 2 and they're open

Let's look at the up to date info from @PHE_uk and @ONS infection survey and see what is going on

#schoolsreopening

1/10

After an initial surge, in the recent weeks of @PHE_uk data we have seen a decline in cases in the 10 - 19y age group

Otherwise lowest cases remain in the 0 - 10y ages, although still trending up

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

2/10

What about school outbreaks?

They've been flat for the past several weeks despite rising prevalence in the community

Unfortunately doesn't tell us about how many cases involved or whether it's children or staff/teachers

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

3/10

People will rightly point out that these probably underestimate the case numbers, due to less symptoms or asymptomatic infections in children

The @ONS infection survey overcomes this by testing *randomly* at large scale

Let's see what's going on there...

4/10

Primary school age children among the lowest prevalence despite full time in person schooling

Secondary age however has high prevalence, although also showing signs of flattening/decline; either following trend in young adults, or half term related

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

5/10

This more or less mirrors what we expect from existing data

Primary school age much lower risk, teenagers higher risk

How much secondary transmission is *in schools* as opposed to from the community is unclear, but hopefully we will have more data soon

6/10

But were initial increases in cases due to schools reopening?

No

We'd expect a 2 -3 week lag if they were due to schools (red arrow)

Cases were already increasing by week 36 *before* schools opened

Schools will have added to an existing increase, but did not cause it

7/10

The trend has been:

Rapid increase in young adults/older teens - they are to COVID-19 what kiddies are to flu

This leaks into secondary age children and adults

Primary age children get dragged up behind along with older adults

8/10

What about teachers?

It is vital we ensure our key workers are kept safe whilst providing essential services

No sign of any increased risk for teachers compared to other key workers so far - good news

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

9/10

Summary

In periods of high prevalence:
-primary schools still low risk
-secondary age children higher risk
-whether cases are transmitted in school or elsewhere is unclear
-community infection rates drive school infections

Keep community rates low to prevent outbreaks

10/10