So let's take a look at #GASEN for a minute. lpdonovan.substack.com/p/georgia-on-m…
First, by the numbers. GOP won more raw votes in both races, albeit narrowly. Perdue in particular ran 2pts ahead of DJT, and in 48 other states, he'd be locked in for another term. Otoh, Biden is on the verge a fairly stunning victory among the same voters.
Second, synergy, for lack of a less consultant-y term. This is a 2-for-1 special where both tickets stand to be complimentary. Perdue surely helps the post-primary reconciliation effort for Rs, and the Ossoff-Warnock buddy comedy is an intriguing combo for Ds, at least on paper.
Third, the paper chase. This one should be discounted a bit given the remarkable futility of half a billion dollars in Dem campaigns and aligned groups, but it will still be a factor, if only to make it an incredibly Merry Christmas for ATL television and radio station owners.
Finally, the swirling crosscurrents of enthusiasm. Will Trumpy Rs go shy w/o him on the ballot, or do they wave the bloody shirt of a "stolen" election? Will victory soothe the anger propelling the anti-Trump Resistance, or is it about more than just vanquishing the Orange Man?

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More from @LPDonovan

7 Nov
This slide suddenly seems very relevant Image
A little more color on that one
Next two slides give a sense of what Rs essentially precluded by clinching at least 50 seats. That marginal seat is wildly important to Dems' range of legislative motion. Image
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
Trump carried 226 CDs in 2016. The (once-clear) path to the majority was predicated on consolidating the 29 of them Dems hold in nominal Trump country. Dems are now favored in 228.
At this point you could probably count them on one hand.
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
This gives away the game right here. If Trump can't bring Rs along for whatever deal he cuts, McConnell is incidental.
Again, McConnell is not the issue. The fact that he introduced a $1T bill months ago that failed to launch because the President didn't lean in should have been a hint.
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
All else aside, and suspending disbelief for a moment--the first minute. That guy, with that tone, dedicated to that message, could climb back in this race before it spirals out of control.
You can get mad about it or you can heed the caveats--even the glimmer of humanity and humility in the early going is eclipsed by the rambling tangent that follows; we know there's no other Trump besides the one we know; and the wheels are going wobbly either way.
I've been talking/thinking through how this could offer any upside or silver lining, and it always comes back to yes, but it would require a normal human in a Trump suit. Which is why these sorts of moments are disarming. Goes back to something I raised on the debate preview pod.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Looks like Dems are making NOL rollback a requirement to get to a deal. Good way to make sure nothing happens regardless of the topline.
When the topline numbers get too close for comfort, just shift gears from arithmetic to abstraction. It's not about money, it's about values.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Yeah, the biggest shock of all this has been how little things have changed amid profound upheaval in every facet of our lives.
Which goes back to this point--we have largely taken these seismic events and fit them into our existing worldview.
OTOH, that 3pt shift in the popular vote is the difference between an electoral rout and a nailbiter, so even marginal movement is huge.
Read 4 tweets

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