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Aaron Derfel

7 Nov, 10 tweets, 6 min read

1) After a plateau in new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks, the situation grew worse in Quebec on Friday, with outbreaks surging in eldercare homes and cases rising in schools. In this thread, I'll explain why the government must adopt a new strategy to fight the second wave.

2) First, let me show why the situation is deteriorating in Quebec despite a partial confinement imposed on Oct. 1. For the past two days, Quebec has posted more than 1,100 #COVID19 cases a day. Also, in the past two days, the province has declared a total of 53 deaths.

3) Probing deeper, one discovers the number of critical #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) has nearly doubled to seven since Oct. 20, and the number under so-called surveillance has tripled to six. Outbreaks have also doubled in seniors' residences (RPAs).

4) At least 1,142 Quebecers are now suffering from #COVID19 in eldercare homes, up by 107 since Thursday. The increases in the past two days are much sharper than in previous weeks. The Sunrise seniors’ residence in Dollard des Ormeaux reported a new outbreak of 14 cases Friday.

5) At the opposite end of the age spectrum, the Education Ministry on Friday added 52 more active #COVID19 cases among students and staff to a record tally of 2,507 across the province. In a disconcerting development, schools shuttered another 31 classes since Thursday.

6) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 287 #COVID19 cases Friday, as the rising orange line in the chart below indicates. The city’s seven-day rolling average was 115.53 cases per million population, up from 109.15 Thursday, quashing any hopes of easing restrictions in the metropolis.

7) In yet another surprising turn, the chart below points to what appears to be a simultaneous #COVID19 resurgence in both the west and east ends of the island of Montreal. This would suggest the #coronavirus is firmly entrenched in communities across the city.

8) Since the start of the week, Montreal has added 15 #COVID19 fatalities to a death toll that has climbed to 3,544. As you can glimpse from the chart below, the city is also experiencing a second wave of deaths, albeit much smaller than the first one.

9) As I’ve highlighted this week in one of my threads, the number of #COVID19 clusters in retail stores rose to 28 on Tuesday from 20 a week earlier. On Thursday, I reported how schools are now driving the transmission of the #coronavirus in Montreal. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

10) All these trends would underscore that the government’s current #COVID19 strategy is not working. Quebec must change course and at the very least install air purifiers in schools and tighten restrictions in the retail sector to head off a turn for the worse. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

8 Nov

1) Quebec on Saturday ended its deadliest week since the first wave of the pandemic, with a seven-day tally of 121 #COVID19 fatalities. The same can be said for the city of Montreal, but most of the deaths are now occurring outside of the city.

2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, Montreal has to date posted 3,547 #COVID19 deaths, greater than all of Ontario’s tally of 3,220. During the #pandemic’s second wave, however, regions like the Capitale-Nationale, and the Montérégie have been observing more deaths.

3) In the worst example, 32 people have died at the CHSLD Sainte-Croix in the Montérégie. A manager has since been fired, but how could so many deaths strike one long-term care centre? Wasn’t Quebec supposed to prevent this from happening again after the first wave's carnage?

Read 8 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

6 Nov

1) Premier François Legault ruled out on Thursday easing #pandemic restrictions in Montreal during a plateau in #COVID19 cases. Turns out what the Premier did not say might be far more important than what he did say during his news conference.

2) Legault was responding to a report by the Montreal public health department recommending easing some restrictions, like allowing museums to reopen. He talked about the continuing risk that gyms, restaurants and theatres pose, but he did not discuss the risks in schools.

@mtlgazette

3) As I reported in the @mtlgazette tonight, one of Quebec’s foremost experts on infectious diseases, Dr. Karl Weiss, says that it’s schools in Montreal that are now driving transmission of the #coronavirus in the community, more so than the workplace. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

5 Nov

1) Quebec’s chief public health officer floated the possibility this week that Montreal may soon move from the highest #pandemic alert, red, to orange after observing a plateau of new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks. In this thread, I will argue why this is premature.

2) At present, two acute-care hospitals in the city are grappling with #COVID19 outbreaks on their wards: St. Mary’s and the Montreal General. In total, 19 patients and 21 staff have contracted the #coronavirus at both. See the chart below from St. Mary’s on Wednesday afternoon.

3) What’s more, there are #COVID19 clusters in nine long-term-care centres (CHSLDS) in the metropolis, along with six in seniors’ residences, with the situation being described as critical at the Résidence Lachine, where one in five occupants are infected with the #coronavirus.

Read 8 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

4 Nov

1) Despite Health Minister Christian Dubé’s talk Tuesday of a stabilization of #COVID19 cases in Montreal, the latest figures show an upswing in the number of workplace outbreaks in the city. In this thread, I will examine the latest trend: more cases among workers in retail.

2) The number of workplace outbreaks in the metropolis climbed to 70 from 58 a week ago, and those employees testing positive for the #coronavirus rose by 25 to 221. What’s of concern is the number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by eight to 28 in shops. See the chart below.

3) With the Christmas season around the corner, more Montrealers will be shopping. For outbreaks to be rising in the retail sector so early doesn’t augur well during the second wave and suggests authorities should be paying more attention to this sector of the local economy.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Nov

1) The age group that’s reporting the most dramatic increase in #COVID19 infections in Montreal — as well as the highest absolute number in the past two weeks — includes high school students. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of the #coronavirus in the educational system.

2) In the chart below, released Monday by the Montreal public health department, you will note that the 10-to-19 age group counted 581 #COVID19 cases in the past 14 days. That’s higher than any other demographic, including the often-cited 20-to-29 age group.

3) Since Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, the number of #COVID19 cases in the 10-to-19 age group has soared by 104.38%, by far the biggest increase of any cohort. The next demographic that recorded the second steepest increase is the 5-to-9 age group (84.46%).

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Nov

1) Quebec’s schools are at what appears to be a worrying turning point in the #pandemic, with teachers who are exhausted, and with the weather turning cold, windows can no longer stay open in classrooms to provide ventilation. In this thread, I'll examine what’s happening.

2) Since Friday, three schools have announced they're closing temporarily after #COVID19 outbreaks: a private Montreal elementary and high school (Ali Ibn Abi Talib), a second in Boisbriand (Gabrielle-Roy, with the daycare shut, too) and a third in Trois-Rivières (Cardinal-Roy).

3) On Friday, the Education Ministry declared a record 2,377 active #COVID19 cases, with 1,934 infected students and 443 staff contracting the #coronavirus. In addition, 938 classes have been shuttered. The ministry doesn’t keep track of schools that have closed.

Read 9 tweets

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