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Aaron Derfel

6 Nov, 10 tweets, 5 min read

1) Premier François Legault ruled out on Thursday easing #pandemic restrictions in Montreal during a plateau in #COVID19 cases. Turns out what the Premier did not say might be far more important than what he did say during his news conference.

2) Legault was responding to a report by the Montreal public health department recommending easing some restrictions, like allowing museums to reopen. He talked about the continuing risk that gyms, restaurants and theatres pose, but he did not discuss the risks in schools.

@mtlgazette

3) As I reported in the @mtlgazette tonight, one of Quebec’s foremost experts on infectious diseases, Dr. Karl Weiss, says that it’s schools in Montreal that are now driving transmission of the #coronavirus in the community, more so than the workplace. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

4) It’s for this reason that the #COVID plateau has not sloped down despite a partial lockdown imposed five weeks ago, Weiss added. The problem is not that schools are open, but rather that they are poorly ventilated, a Concordia University building engineering professor told me.

5) Yet during Thursday’s news conference, Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, denied that transmission of the #coronavirus is a problem in the province’s schools. Arruda did not cite any statistics to back up his assertion, perhaps because there aren’t any.

6) The Education Ministry released its daily report revealing a dozen more schools across the province that have identified at least one #COVID19 case since Wednesday. In addition, the number of active cases in schools climbed by 45 to 2,455. See the chart below.

7) Covidecolesquebec.org keeps its own tally and since Wednesday, it has increased by 14 schools. This website has been calling for the installation of portable air purifiers with HEPA filters in poorly-ventilated classrooms — something Montreal’s public schools are not doing.

8) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 261 new #COVID19 cases Thursday, as the chart below shows. The seven-day rolling average remains high at 109.15 cases per million population, up from 108.04 the day before. The plateau is clearly not tapering off.

9) Neither is the number of #COVID19 deaths in the metropolis. Montreal added three more to a death toll that stands at 3,541, higher than Ireland’s (1,933) and Austria’s (1,268) combined. Austria’s population alone is greater than Quebec’s. See the chart below.

10) Finally, in an apparently unsettling development, the pathogenic #coronavirus was circulating almost equally in all health districts across the city on Thursday, much as it has in schools across the island of Montreal. End of thread. Please stay safe, everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

7 Nov

1) After a plateau in new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks, the situation grew worse in Quebec on Friday, with outbreaks surging in eldercare homes and cases rising in schools. In this thread, I'll explain why the government must adopt a new strategy to fight the second wave.

2) First, let me show why the situation is deteriorating in Quebec despite a partial confinement imposed on Oct. 1. For the past two days, Quebec has posted more than 1,100 #COVID19 cases a day. Also, in the past two days, the province has declared a total of 53 deaths.

3) Probing deeper, one discovers the number of critical #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) has nearly doubled to seven since Oct. 20, and the number under so-called surveillance has tripled to six. Outbreaks have also doubled in seniors' residences (RPAs).

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

5 Nov

1) Quebec’s chief public health officer floated the possibility this week that Montreal may soon move from the highest #pandemic alert, red, to orange after observing a plateau of new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks. In this thread, I will argue why this is premature.

2) At present, two acute-care hospitals in the city are grappling with #COVID19 outbreaks on their wards: St. Mary’s and the Montreal General. In total, 19 patients and 21 staff have contracted the #coronavirus at both. See the chart below from St. Mary’s on Wednesday afternoon.

3) What’s more, there are #COVID19 clusters in nine long-term-care centres (CHSLDS) in the metropolis, along with six in seniors’ residences, with the situation being described as critical at the Résidence Lachine, where one in five occupants are infected with the #coronavirus.

Read 8 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

4 Nov

1) Despite Health Minister Christian Dubé’s talk Tuesday of a stabilization of #COVID19 cases in Montreal, the latest figures show an upswing in the number of workplace outbreaks in the city. In this thread, I will examine the latest trend: more cases among workers in retail.

2) The number of workplace outbreaks in the metropolis climbed to 70 from 58 a week ago, and those employees testing positive for the #coronavirus rose by 25 to 221. What’s of concern is the number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by eight to 28 in shops. See the chart below.

3) With the Christmas season around the corner, more Montrealers will be shopping. For outbreaks to be rising in the retail sector so early doesn’t augur well during the second wave and suggests authorities should be paying more attention to this sector of the local economy.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Nov

1) The age group that’s reporting the most dramatic increase in #COVID19 infections in Montreal — as well as the highest absolute number in the past two weeks — includes high school students. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of the #coronavirus in the educational system.

2) In the chart below, released Monday by the Montreal public health department, you will note that the 10-to-19 age group counted 581 #COVID19 cases in the past 14 days. That’s higher than any other demographic, including the often-cited 20-to-29 age group.

3) Since Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, the number of #COVID19 cases in the 10-to-19 age group has soared by 104.38%, by far the biggest increase of any cohort. The next demographic that recorded the second steepest increase is the 5-to-9 age group (84.46%).

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Nov

1) Quebec’s schools are at what appears to be a worrying turning point in the #pandemic, with teachers who are exhausted, and with the weather turning cold, windows can no longer stay open in classrooms to provide ventilation. In this thread, I'll examine what’s happening.

2) Since Friday, three schools have announced they're closing temporarily after #COVID19 outbreaks: a private Montreal elementary and high school (Ali Ibn Abi Talib), a second in Boisbriand (Gabrielle-Roy, with the daycare shut, too) and a third in Trois-Rivières (Cardinal-Roy).

3) On Friday, the Education Ministry declared a record 2,377 active #COVID19 cases, with 1,934 infected students and 443 staff contracting the #coronavirus. In addition, 938 classes have been shuttered. The ministry doesn’t keep track of schools that have closed.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

1 Nov

1) Across Canada, some efforts are underway to improve ventilation in schools to prevent children and teens from contracting #COVID19. In Quebec, however, little is being done. In this thread, I will call upon the provincial government to do something fast.

2) I first urged authorities in Quebec to upgrade ventilation in schools in early August. On Sept.26, with most schools already open for a month, Education Minister Jean-François Roberge announced $20 million for the maintenance of existing ventilation, not upgrades.

3) That investment works out to less than $7,000 per school. Quebec, with one-tenth of Germany’s population, is investing 2.37% of what Germany is spending to upgrade the ventilation of its public buildings, including schools and universities.

Read 10 tweets

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