Johnson’s Biden calculation is more complex than many make out.
Given the polls, UK govt has to conclude a Biden presidency most probable outcome. So why wait for it to restart Brexit talks?
It’s this:
It doesn’t affect the substance of Brexit so much as the mood of UK leavers.
Given the polls, UK govt has to conclude a Biden presidency most probable outcome. So why wait for it to restart Brexit talks?
It’s this:
It doesn’t affect the substance of Brexit so much as the mood of UK leavers.
2/
The moment it’s clear Biden has won - the whole psychological context of Brexit changes - whatever your views on actual substance of Brexit.
Without the idea of Trump as facilitator of a US deal or of UK riding a global populist wave - brexit becomes just a problem to solve.
The moment it’s clear Biden has won - the whole psychological context of Brexit changes - whatever your views on actual substance of Brexit.
Without the idea of Trump as facilitator of a US deal or of UK riding a global populist wave - brexit becomes just a problem to solve.
3/
I think Johnson is smart enough to get this.
If you’re going to have to compromise - do it when your supporters are dejected Trump has gone..not while they still believe he could win.
That way it wasn’t your fault.
That’s another reason to be more optimistic for a deal.
I think Johnson is smart enough to get this.
If you’re going to have to compromise - do it when your supporters are dejected Trump has gone..not while they still believe he could win.
That way it wasn’t your fault.
That’s another reason to be more optimistic for a deal.
4/
The whole “Irish equation“ to Brexit doesn’t really change much in substance between Trump & Biden - but the psychology of it does for UK.
With Biden there’s no way of covering this up - and everyone gets this.
This enables Johnson to argue his hands are tied.
The whole “Irish equation“ to Brexit doesn’t really change much in substance between Trump & Biden - but the psychology of it does for UK.
With Biden there’s no way of covering this up - and everyone gets this.
This enables Johnson to argue his hands are tied.
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