Thread by @LaurenceBroers

Six weeks in, 2nd #Karabakh War is at a crucial moment as fighting rages for NK’s historical capital, Shusha (spelled Shushi in Armenian sources). Significance of this town cannot be under-estimated for either side (see thread by @Tom_deWaal)

Shusha is a natural fortress, protected by cliffs on its south side, and overlooks NK capital Stepanakert to the north - a local saying has it that "Whoever controls Shusha, controls Karabakh".

It was the principal Azerbaijani-majority town in NK prior to 1990s war (c. 85% in 1979), falling to Armenian forces in May 1992. For a narrative of those events see the joint documentary film Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict, at 37.08: vimeo.com/407942633

Shusha is significant as a historical site of repeated forced displacements, notably in 1920, 1988 (Armenians) + 1992 (Azerbaijanis). Earlier, renowned as a major city in Imperial Russian Transcaucasia with lively trade, arts, civic life among both communities.

For AZ, return of displaced Azerbaijanis to Shusha seen as litmus test for any peace agreement. Affective attachment to Shusha among Azerbaijanis displaced from the town in 1992 were explored in this short film (14 minutes) from 2007:

Shusha remained largely a ruined city until mid-2000s. About 2/3 of population (c. 3000 in 2005) were Armenians displaced from other parts of AZ in 1988-90. Efforts to rebuild increased from around 2006. By 2015 some of the institutions of the de facto NKR had moved there.

A sense of what the town meant for a young couple with Armenian roots who moved there in the mid-2000s can be found in this short film (13 minutes), one segment of the 2012 Armenian-Azerbaijani-Turkish joint film, Memories Without Borders:

NK Armenians' announcement on 21/9/2020 that de facto NK parliament would move to the city aroused considerable anger in AZ. Shusha had also been cause for earlier tensions in May of this year. See: chathamhouse.org/2020/06/armeni…

Explains why President Aliyev has said “mission not complete” until Shusha under AZ control. If successful, could be an inflection point with paths either to negotiations from a hugely stronger position for AZ, or continued military campaign to reassert control over whole of NK.

Fighting over recent days at much closer quarters, ARM patrols/ambushes v AZ probes; ARM side posted first drone strike video of its own this week; but while conditions in forested higher ground might favour asymmetric warfare and AZ advance has slowed, it hasn’t stopped.

Despite 3 ceasefires and an agreement not to, attacks on civilians have continued; Stepanakert, Shusha have been under continuous bombardment/missile strikes for days, yesterday 3 Armenian civilians killed by missile strike on Stepanakert; in total 48 ARM civilians killed.

Azerbaijani towns Terter, Barda, also villages in non-occupied part of Agdam district, have also been bombarded, and today Barda struck by artillery killing a 16 year-old; 93 AZ civilians have been killed to date.

Use of phosphorous munitions reported over recent days, causing massive ecological damage; usually used to create smokescreens or flush out embedded defences; if smokescreens to blind AZ drones was the explanation, would have expected to see this earlier.

Battle for Shusha will have very heavy human toll. Outcome has huge political-symbolic significance, though control over Lachin corridor strategically more important. Though conditions different, war continued for another 2 years after the last time Shusha changed hands in 1992.