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Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
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8 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/ Super-high turnout is because of a couple things:

1. TRUMP. He has been a polarizing president -- either love him or passionately hate him, and he turned out the vote, for him and against; ...
2/ 2. MAIL-IN BALLOTS. States, like CO/WA that have been virtually all-mail have very high participation rates. That went national this year for the first time. ...
3/ These are fact-based reasons for why there is high turnout. Unfortunately, too many people jump to conspiracies because it fits their prior-held beliefs. It's called confirmation bias. ...
4/4 That might sound egg-heady, but it's real. Just because someone thinks something, and a link (with bad information) tells them they're right, doesn't mean they are.
#Election2020
#Election2020results
#ElectionDay

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More from @DomenicoNPR

Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
10 Nov
1/ The 9/11 Commission wrote about the national-security threat of slow transitions/lack of cooperation during one. Since national security is one of the three legs of the GOP stool, you'd expect they get the risk & vulnerability Trump is exposing ALL Americans to right now:
2/ From the report:

"Since a catastrophic attack could occur with little or no notice, we should minimize as much as possible the disruption of national security policymaking during the change of administrations by accelerating the process for national security appointments. ...
3/ "We think the process could be improved significantly
so transitions can work more effectively and allow new officials to assume their new responsibilities as quickly as possible."

More...
Read 14 tweets
Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
1 Nov
I'm not sure who needs to hear this, but here goes... final election results are NEVER known on Election Night. All the votes are NEVER counted by and on Election Night.
SOMETIMES, and not always, can the broadcast networks and the AP call presidential elections on Election Night. That's because they have ENOUGH of the vote to know which direction the state is going or, in the AP's case, if the other candidate doesn't have a path left to win.
The AP didn't call the Trump-Clinton race until 2:29 a.m. Wednesday morning in 2016. And at THAT POINT, Trump was still leading in the popular vote. I wrote a post at 3:06 a.m. ET that said Clinton was likely to win the popular vote. And I UNDERESTIMATED by how much by 1.2m votes
Read 12 tweets
Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
9 Sep
“The president never downplayed the virus” — Trump’s press secretary.

Let’s recap:
1/ Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away. hope that’s true. But we’re doing great in our country.”
2/ Feb. 11: “In our country, we only have, basically, 12 cases and most of those people are recovering and some cases fully recovered. So it’s actually less.”
3/ Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA.”
Read 21 tweets
Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
24 Mar
Thread: #Coronavirus is not the flu. Here's how they differ, per @NPR's @Pien_Huang:

1. COVID-19 is novel, and that means there's no vaccine and it's unclear how it will manifest
2. CV infects 2-2.5 people vs. 1.3 with the flu...
3. 20% of CV patients are serious enough to go to the hospital, 10x the flu
4. Hospital stay for COVID is 2x as long as flu
5. 8% get the flu. Some estimates are 25-50%, possibly up to 80%, could get CV w/o drastic actions taken...
6. CV could be 10x deadlier. 0.1% who get flu die; est. @1% who got CV have died from it
7. There are treatments for the flu. There are no approved treatments for CV
8. Flu wanes in warm weather; don't count on that for CV which is thriving in warm, tropical places
Read 4 tweets
Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
25 Sep 19
Here's what we know now that the notes of the Ukraine call have been released:

1. Giuliani, the president’s personal atty working for Trump’s personal benefit, was pressing Ukraine to investigate the Bidens in private, overseas meetings. One, he says, was set up by State Dept
2. The Ukraine president brought up Giuliani to Trump, meaning it got to his level. He says, "...and we are hoping very much that Mr. Giuliani will be able to travel to Ukraine." Ukraine NEEDS U.S. $, and Trump knows that. He criticized Obama this wk for sending pillows & sheets
3. After the Ukrainian president mentions defense aid provided by the U.S. and thanks Trump, Trump then directly asks for a “favor” from the Ukrainian president -- to investigate the Bidens
Read 14 tweets
Domenico Montanaro Profile picture
23 Sep 19
The stories of what @realDonaldTrump did and what @JoeBiden did with regards to Ukraine aren't even close to the same. Let's look at how:
1. Trump brought up a political rival and, if the WSJ story is true, he was pressuring a foreign leader, not only ACCEPTING foreign intervention on his behalf, like many in his campaign did in 2016 from Russia, but ASKING for it.
2. He employed his personal lawyer to lay the groundwork for this political attack and in seeking the foreign intervention. This is something Giuliani ADMITS to (cited in WSJ)
Read 16 tweets

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