Thread by @jonworth

The essential problem with much of the commentary on UK-US relations and Biden's win, especially with regard to Brexit, is a misunderstanding of perception / communication, versus reality

Let's start with the prospect of a US-UK trade deal, post-Brexit

There has NEVER been a realistic prospect of this deal happening

Why?

The Democrats have controlled the House since the end of 2018, and the House has to approve any Deal

The US would have pushed for agriculture and healthcare to be included in a Deal, the UK would have pushed for financial services. On the substance it would have become a nightmare

And that's before you even come to the implications of Brexit and trade on Ireland

The issue was then NOT one of reality, but one of perception

With Trump in the White House there was enough of a perception for the Tory Party that they would be able to get something from him, that - given time - he would deliver

It was enough to give cover in speeches, for one liners in TV interviews. The reality didn't matter. The perception Trump would offer the UK a Deal was enough

It was a chimera

If you doubt the UK Government will play tricks like this with trade policy, have a look at what happened with the Japan rollover deal - saying they got it done was more important than the detail

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

Now with Biden as incoming President, even the chimera of a US-UK trade deal disappears

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1325344221293842432

The actual concrete difference is zero. There was not going to be a trade deal with Trump in the White House, and there is not going to be one (at least not for a long time) with Biden there either

But the perceptions are worlds apart

The question then is what UK-US relations, in the context of wider transatlantic relations, are going to look like in the months and years ahead

Biden will reset things back to the level of concrete cooperation, and discussion of substance. That will be welcome in Berlin, Paris

But what does Number 10 do in light of this?

Realise the world has changed, knuckle down, deal with the very real issues of substance? Actually focus on governing?

Or keep living in the realm of perception first politics?

There is no time to dither about a decision, because the major issue facing the UK for the next fortnight - Brexit Deal or No Deal - falls right into this distinction

A Deal is in terms of actual outcome more sensible, but is harder to communicate

No Deal makes no practical sense, but the communication and perception are - in the eyes of Number 10 - easier: blame the EU for the ensuing chaos

We can already gauge what the US side of transatlantic relations is going to look like, and indeed how that'll be received in Paris, Berlin, Brussels - for it will approach something akin to the old normal

With regard to what London does, we have to wait and see

/ends