1) Health Minister Christian Dubé will travel Monday to the Saguenay—Lac-St-Jean region after it posted on Sunday its highest daily number of #COVID19 cases amid critical outbreaks in at least two eldercare homes. In this thread, I will take stock of Quebec's escalating crisis.
2) During the #pandemcic's first wave, the Saguenay—Lac-St-Jean was largely spared. But in the past two weeks, infections have risen in the region from under 50 a day to 155 Sunday. More than 50 elderly residents are suffering from #COVID19 in two major institutional outbreaks.
3) The worsening situation is also reflected in the fact that Quebec set a record 1,397 cases Sunday amid high levels of testing. Neighboring Ontario smashed its previous record by nearly 200 cases. What’s more, #COVID19 is on the rise in Montreal and more so in Toronto.
4) A day after declaring Quebec had “regained a certain amount of control over the pandemic,” Premier François Legault tweeted Sunday of a “worrisome increase in the number of cases in several regions,” adding Quebecers must reduce their contacts as “lives are at stake.”
5) It would appear to serve no purpose for authorities to issue a reassuring message to the public one day (even though the province ended its deadliest week since the first wave of the #pandemic) only to issue a statement the next conveying a stark warning.
6) As Quebecers move more indoors as the weather grows colder, there will be more opportunity for the #coronavirus to spread in the workplace and in schools. In light of this hard reality, authorities must step up efforts to improve building ventilation. cbc.ca/news/health/co…
7) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 308 #COVID19 cases Sunday from 286 the day before, as the chart below indicates. A senior health manager told me that people in various Montreal communities are still gathering secretly in large numbers, in addition to school and workplace outbreaks.
8) At the neighborhood level, the north end of the city counted the highest number of #COVID19 infections Sunday, as the chart below indicates. But the numbers were also elevated in the west and east ends of the metropolis, underscoring the ubiquitous nature of the #coronavirus.
9) Public health officials are now beginning to fret about the prospect of a third wave in January and February after Christmas shopping and holiday get-togethers. Perhaps it’s time for authorities to level with the public about what to expect in the weeks ahead. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

8 Nov
1) Quebec on Saturday ended its deadliest week since the first wave of the pandemic, with a seven-day tally of 121 #COVID19 fatalities. The same can be said for the city of Montreal, but most of the deaths are now occurring outside of the city.
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, Montreal has to date posted 3,547 #COVID19 deaths, greater than all of Ontario’s tally of 3,220. During the #pandemic’s second wave, however, regions like the Capitale-Nationale, and the Montérégie have been observing more deaths.
3) In the worst example, 32 people have died at the CHSLD Sainte-Croix in the Montérégie. A manager has since been fired, but how could so many deaths strike one long-term care centre? Wasn’t Quebec supposed to prevent this from happening again after the first wave's carnage?
Read 8 tweets
7 Nov
1) After a plateau in new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks, the situation grew worse in Quebec on Friday, with outbreaks surging in eldercare homes and cases rising in schools. In this thread, I'll explain why the government must adopt a new strategy to fight the second wave.
2) First, let me show why the situation is deteriorating in Quebec despite a partial confinement imposed on Oct. 1. For the past two days, Quebec has posted more than 1,100 #COVID19 cases a day. Also, in the past two days, the province has declared a total of 53 deaths.
3) Probing deeper, one discovers the number of critical #COVID19 outbreaks in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) has nearly doubled to seven since Oct. 20, and the number under so-called surveillance has tripled to six. Outbreaks have also doubled in seniors' residences (RPAs).
Read 10 tweets
6 Nov
1) Premier François Legault ruled out on Thursday easing #pandemic restrictions in Montreal during a plateau in #COVID19 cases. Turns out what the Premier did not say might be far more important than what he did say during his news conference.
2) Legault was responding to a report by the Montreal public health department recommending easing some restrictions, like allowing museums to reopen. He talked about the continuing risk that gyms, restaurants and theatres pose, but he did not discuss the risks in schools.
3) As I reported in the @mtlgazette tonight, one of Quebec’s foremost experts on infectious diseases, Dr. Karl Weiss, says that it’s schools in Montreal that are now driving transmission of the #coronavirus in the community, more so than the workplace. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
Read 10 tweets
5 Nov
1) Quebec’s chief public health officer floated the possibility this week that Montreal may soon move from the highest #pandemic alert, red, to orange after observing a plateau of new #COVID19 cases in the past few weeks. In this thread, I will argue why this is premature.
2) At present, two acute-care hospitals in the city are grappling with #COVID19 outbreaks on their wards: St. Mary’s and the Montreal General. In total, 19 patients and 21 staff have contracted the #coronavirus at both. See the chart below from St. Mary’s on Wednesday afternoon.
3) What’s more, there are #COVID19 clusters in nine long-term-care centres (CHSLDS) in the metropolis, along with six in seniors’ residences, with the situation being described as critical at the Résidence Lachine, where one in five occupants are infected with the #coronavirus.
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov
1) Despite Health Minister Christian Dubé’s talk Tuesday of a stabilization of #COVID19 cases in Montreal, the latest figures show an upswing in the number of workplace outbreaks in the city. In this thread, I will examine the latest trend: more cases among workers in retail.
2) The number of workplace outbreaks in the metropolis climbed to 70 from 58 a week ago, and those employees testing positive for the #coronavirus rose by 25 to 221. What’s of concern is the number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by eight to 28 in shops. See the chart below.
3) With the Christmas season around the corner, more Montrealers will be shopping. For outbreaks to be rising in the retail sector so early doesn’t augur well during the second wave and suggests authorities should be paying more attention to this sector of the local economy.
Read 9 tweets
3 Nov
1) The age group that’s reporting the most dramatic increase in #COVID19 infections in Montreal — as well as the highest absolute number in the past two weeks — includes high school students. In this thread, I will revisit the topic of the #coronavirus in the educational system.
2) In the chart below, released Monday by the Montreal public health department, you will note that the 10-to-19 age group counted 581 #COVID19 cases in the past 14 days. That’s higher than any other demographic, including the often-cited 20-to-29 age group.
3) Since Aug. 25, just before the start of the school year, the number of #COVID19 cases in the 10-to-19 age group has soared by 104.38%, by far the biggest increase of any cohort. The next demographic that recorded the second steepest increase is the 5-to-9 age group (84.46%).
Read 10 tweets

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