Share this page!

Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
Twitter logo
9 Nov, 9 tweets, 4 min read
📣 Weekly Update: Which *counties* have the highest per capita rates of #COVID19 cases & deaths? 1/
acasignups.net/20/11/09/weekl…
Counties w/highest #COVID19 cases per capita:
1. Lincoln County, AR
2. Norton County, KS
3. Chattahoochee County, GA
4. Bon Homme County, SD
5. Trousdale County, TN
6. Buffalo County, SD
7. Lafayette County, FL
8. Lake County, TN
9. Dakota County, NE
10. Buena Vista County, IA
2/
⚠️ 18% of the entire population of Lincoln County, Arkansas has now tested positive for #COVID19.

⚠️ 80 of the 100 counties w/the highest known infection rate were won by Donald Trump in 2016 by more than 6 points.
3/
Counties w/highest #COVID19 *death* rate per capita:
1. Gove County, KS
2. Jerauld County, SD
3. Hancock County, GA
4. Emporia, VA
5. Kenedy County, TX
6. Galax, VA
7. Randolph County, GA
8. E. Feliciana Parish, LA
9. Neshoba County, MS
10. Jenkins County, GA
4/
⚠️ In Gove County, South Dakota, 19 of the county's 2,636 residents have died of #COVID19.

⚠️ 59 of the 100 counties w/the highest mortality rate were won by Donald Trump in 2016 by more than 6 points.
5/
⚠️ There are now just 278 counties nationally (out of over 3,100 total) which haven't reported any #COVID19 deaths. Total population of those counties: 2.37 million.

⚠️ There are now just 5 counties nationally which haven't reported any COVID19 *cases*. Total population? 4,868.
⚠️ Finally: The cumulative number of #COVID19 cases per capita in Trump'16 counties is now *higher* than in Clinton'16 counties.

⚠️ The death rate is still higher in Clinton'16 counties...but the ratio has dropped from 530% in April to 300% higher in June to just 55% higher now.
At the *state* level the shift is even more dramatic: Cases are now 50% higher per capita in the Red States and deaths are now only 25% higher in the Blue States.
CORRECTION: That should be Gove County, KANSAS which now has the highest #COVID19 mortality rate; Jerauld County, South Dakota is right below it. Apologies.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Charles Ghoul-ba

Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @charles_gaba

Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
11 Nov
...which goes to show that using the PHRASE “defund” was terrible branding.
It’s not unreasonable for people to assume that “defund the police” means to take away ALL funding given that “defund” literally means to remove funding from something. You can argue that it doesn’t necessarily mean ALL funding, but that’s not an unreasonable interpretation. Image
This is similar to how polls show M4All having high approval ratings which drop significantly when you explain that “for all” wouldn’t be optional. Many people assume it means “for all who want it”.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
11 Nov
Not to mention even if you support M4All, IT’S DEAD UNTIL AT LEAST 2024. Unless you think M4All supporters are going to pick up another 80 seats in the House AND flip all 30-odd GOP seats up in the Senate in the midterms, why the fuck are you picking this battle RIGHT NOW??
Biden will be VERY lucky to get us to ACA 1.5 before 2023, much less 2.0+a PO, and even THAT assumes we flip BOTH GA Senate seats AND the SCOTUS doesn’t strike the whole law down next spring.
Given the situation, killing the subsidy cliff, beefing up the subsidy formula, fixing the family glitch and something to entice more states into expanding Medicaid would be pretty fucking impressive in my view.
Read 4 tweets
Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
10 Nov
CJ John Roberts now bringing up the fact that the Obama Admin argued that the mandate penalty was "critical" in 2012; why is it no longer "critical"...Verrilli (for the defense) makes exactly my point: The situation was very different in 2012 vs. 2020.

acasignups.net/20/10/13/colum…
Verrilli correctly notes that the carrot (financial subsidies) simply turned out to be far more important than the stick (mandate penalty).

Put another way: GOP cut off most of the red leg...which was then replaced by the World's Most Expensive Shim®. Image
Verrilli correctly notes that THE SITUATION CHANGED BETWEEN 2010 AND 2017.

In 2010, virtually every insurance carrier said they wouldn't participate in the ACA exchanges without a mandate. If that had happened, the law *would* have failed *at that time*. 2017 wasn't 2010.
Read 48 tweets
Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
10 Nov
Exactly. Zeroing the mandate did cause *some* damage to the indy market, but not nearly as much as feared. Just because the Obama Admin thought it was “vital” in 2012 (mostly to keep carriers from bailing in the early, shaky days) doesn’t mean it’s still “vital” today.
2019 premiums (the first year after the penalty was zeroed out) were indeed about $580/year higher specifically due to this reason than the would’ve been otherwise for unsubsidized enrollees...but that’s a fender bender, not a totaled car.

nytimes.com/2018/12/27/opi…
Average premiums went up less than 3% in 2019 (instead of *dropping* ~5% without the zeroing); 0% in 2020 (flat); and are going up just 1% in 2021.

That’s the very definition of a stable market.
Read 4 tweets
Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
9 Nov
How many are left to count in California??
via @snarkylicious: According to this, total turnout in CA was a whopping 16.9 million! In 2016 it was 14.2 million.

As of today, via @DecisionDesk, 14.3 million have been counted in CA so far, so that leaves a good 2.6 million left.

abc10.com/article/news/p…
Add the 1.2 million from NY and that's 3.8 million. Add in missing ballots from other states and it could be as many as, what, 5 million total nationally?

Assume Biden wins 3/5 of those and that's an extra 3.8 million for him + another 1.2 million for Trump, or 79.4M to 72.4M.
Read 4 tweets
Charles Ghoul-ba Profile picture
8 Nov
Meanwhile @CookPolitical says 422 House races have been decided:
Dems: 220
GOP: 202
Uncalled: 13
Uncalled races: CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, IL-14, IA-02, NY-01, NY-02, NY-03, NY-11, NY-22, NY-24, TX-24, UT-04 (that's 14...not sure where the extra is)

cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vot…
OK, it looks like CA-25 (Mike Garcia/Christy Smith) is listed as GOP but also is labelled as not called yet.
Here's where Cook Report has those 14 at the moment. Dems leading in 3, GOP leading in 11.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @charles_gaba