Wow! Good news! Pfizer press release says vaccine 90% effective at preventing symptomatic #COVID19!
If results hold, this is a very good efficacy for a vaccine, higher than I was expecting, by far.
From this, we can be cautiously optimistic!
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nytimes.com/2020/11/09/hea…
If results hold, this is a very good efficacy for a vaccine, higher than I was expecting, by far.
From this, we can be cautiously optimistic!
1/
nytimes.com/2020/11/09/hea…
We do have to be cautious in interpreting these early results (from a press release) and we don’t know if same level of protection will persist long-term or if this is driven a lot by early effects more than robust immune memory
Nevertheless, this is a positive data point
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Nevertheless, this is a positive data point
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A couple of other items we will need to look out for
Even it protects from symptomatic disease, does it also protect from onward transmission?
The assumption is it would largely do this (and this would underpin herd immunity). But blocking transmission isn’t a sure bet
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Even it protects from symptomatic disease, does it also protect from onward transmission?
The assumption is it would largely do this (and this would underpin herd immunity). But blocking transmission isn’t a sure bet
3/
We also don’t have data from the press release on how it works in the elderly / most vulnerable
If it does not work well (often immune responses go down in elderly) then we need to be careful in considering it’s role to protect elderly. And hopefully it blocks transmission
4/
If it does not work well (often immune responses go down in elderly) then we need to be careful in considering it’s role to protect elderly. And hopefully it blocks transmission
4/
Many other considerations but other big one is how it will be distributed. 20M doses by end of year. These may go to whole of world, not just 1 country. Allocation/ distribution will mean that vaccines are NOT a month away. Probably not 6 months away for most.
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5/
With those considerations in mind, 90% effective is a very very good early phase three result for the Pfizer vaccine. I’m hopeful. So many questions remain...
But this is a cause to have hope and see a faint light in an otherwise dark #COVID19 winter tunnel we are entering.
But this is a cause to have hope and see a faint light in an otherwise dark #COVID19 winter tunnel we are entering.
Also, here is a terrific thread from @nataliexdean on the topic and at the end of that thread there is an even better thread that she wrote a couple months ago that outlines details of vaccine efficacy, measurement and more.
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1325820512946302977
Also, for those concerned w details... efficacy is the correct term I should have used and NYT should have used... if being technical. Efficacy is from blinded trials like these. The real world “effect” may be different. I use effect here bc many people won’t know efficacy
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