Frequent testing is needed to detect people early before infecting others. They must be highly scalable and for buy in, very convenient - i.e. home use
10M Rapid tests/day (i.e. antigen bc scalable / simple) can form the foundation to build back economy
Frequent tests alone won’t be the end all be all of this pandemic. Not by a long shot. These can greatly reduce odds of transmission - when used en masse, odds of onward transmission (i.e. Rt) can plummet.
To work, also need huge social/economic safety nets, + masks/distancing.
Although new administration will not officially start till January, we have options now. @JoeBiden and team led by @vivek_murthy can start now to engage manufacturing and begin planning/building these at scale w promise of payment once in office, as one example.
We’ll need (voluntary) reporting. Can start now to work with google/apple/ATT/Verizon to make voluntary reporting as simple as a text message.
Start talking to governors today about how to distribute and ensure equitable access, ideally paid for by government, not pocket.
And we absolutely need to ensure that anyone testing positive is guaranteed that they will not be out of a paycheck for staying home and isolating. This is an absolute must. The quicker we get the virus under control, the less and less this part will cost.
The ROI is huge.
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Second, we are so frequently talking about sensitivity bc no one wants to miss a case (will come back to this...) but what is equally or even more important when we consider frequent rapid antigen tests to suppress outbreaks with millions of them daily is SPECIFICTY
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We do have to be cautious in interpreting these early results (from a press release) and we don’t know if same level of protection will persist long-term or if this is driven a lot by early effects more than robust immune memory
Nevertheless, this is a positive data point
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A couple of other items we will need to look out for
Even it protects from symptomatic disease, does it also protect from onward transmission?
The assumption is it would largely do this (and this would underpin herd immunity). But blocking transmission isn’t a sure bet
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Headline says as much as 1M Americans getting COVID daily. This is based on a back of the envelope calculation
We know that only 10% of cases may be diagnosed. So if we have 100k diagnosed daily, then the thinking is that x10 = 1 million
But this misses a crucial piece
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Even though 100k+ new cases DETECTED daily, and we can multiply by 10 for underdiagnosis and get 1M... this is not NEW cases happening daily. This is prevalence of virus positivity daily....
To convert to daily INCIDENCE (Ie new infections daily) takes another step
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Adoption of strategies that aim to allow people to test themselves, privately,simply, at home, 1-2x/week could help suppress outbreaks quickly. Especially in context of other public health measures.
We don’t need perfect compliance, at all. We just need decent compliance - we can achieve this. Like herd immunity, we don’t need this to be everyone, just enough people to drop R<1. I estimate 10% of people in a community would test at home per day. So need not have perfection
We still need reporting so public health officials can keep track
No problem... we work w Google, Apple and whoever else to make voluntary reporting easy as a FaceTime call. If I can see my twin brother 2000 miles away w the push of a button, I should be able to report a result
The specificity of the PanBio, BinaxNow and SD Biosensor tests (the three leading manufactured rapid tests in the world) are looking very good!
In this paper, specificity was 100% in >400 samples... thus >99.2%
Now multiple studies showing very high specificity!
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The sensitivity metrics AND specificity metrics are now completely in alignment with what we have proposed for frequent rapid testing that can control outbreaks without vaccines.