On frequent wide scale rapid testing programs as foundation to slow #COVID19
“Total cost, in tens of billions, would still be far less than the many trillions of dollars of... continued economic loss”
True!
(One comment about the headline...
1/x)
forbes.com/sites/williamh…
“Total cost, in tens of billions, would still be far less than the many trillions of dollars of... continued economic loss”
True!
(One comment about the headline...
1/x)
forbes.com/sites/williamh…
Headline says as much as 1M Americans getting COVID daily. This is based on a back of the envelope calculation
We know that only 10% of cases may be diagnosed. So if we have 100k diagnosed daily, then the thinking is that x10 = 1 million
But this misses a crucial piece
2/x
We know that only 10% of cases may be diagnosed. So if we have 100k diagnosed daily, then the thinking is that x10 = 1 million
But this misses a crucial piece
2/x
Even though 100k+ new cases DETECTED daily, and we can multiply by 10 for underdiagnosis and get 1M... this is not NEW cases happening daily. This is prevalence of virus positivity daily....
To convert to daily INCIDENCE (Ie new infections daily) takes another step
3/x
To convert to daily INCIDENCE (Ie new infections daily) takes another step
3/x
People remain positive for 10-30 days average. So those cases accumulate daily. 10 people today + 10 tmrw + 10 the next day and so on for 20 days.... Prevalence may be 200 positives in the community, but new cases daily is still just 10 new cases/day
Prevalence builds up
4/x
Prevalence builds up
4/x
So even for an Acute respiratory infection (vs a chronic infection) we must be sure to consider incidence (true new events daily) vs prevalence (number positive daily). These are different and with a 10-30 day positivity, this building of prevalence vs incidence is important
5/5
5/5
And this is the most bare bones consideration.... SO many more nuances that must be achieved to fully estimate the true number. This thread was more to point out a most basic piece about prevalence vs incidence....
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