MARS: 4th largest privately held company in US.

It’s the largest pet care company in the world. Confectionary/Chocolates, technically, is not their primary business.

Bought Wrigley’s in 2008 for $23 BN.

1/4 ImageImage
MARS paid $11 BN itself. $ 5.7 BN debt was raised from Goldman.

Buffett invested $4.4 BN in bonds at 11.45%. And $2.1 BN in Wrigley’s preferred stock at 5%.

2/4
Buffett’s total returns on the bonds alone was 72% when MARS repurchases the bonds at a premium (15.45%) 5 years later.

MARS also bought the regular stock at $4.5 BN (Investment of $2.1 BN). It had already paid $840 MN in dividends.

3/4
That’s some deal making by Buffett.

But what’s more impressive is the confidence that MARS has in its business to pay such premiums to Buffett & resist the temptation to go public.

(End)

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More from @abhishec_s

11 Nov
Italy & Coffee

Italy is the spiritual home of coffee.

The vocabulary of coffee (espresso/cappuccino/barista/macchiato/latte) is Italian.

1/ Image
Coffee was introduced to Italy by Arabic travellers in 15th/16th century.

Wine sellers threatened by its popularity made an appeal to Pope Clement VIII to banish it.

Pope after tasting the coffee declared it to be delicious & quipped that it should be baptised.

2/ Image
After the Papal blessing cafes proliferated across Europe.

The 2nd oldest cafe in Italy today, Caffè Greco was opened in 1760. It was frequented by Byron/Keats/Shelly/Goethe/Wagner among others.

It still has the couch of Christian Anderson who lived upstairs for a while.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
11 Nov
On Valuing Banks

Approximate MCAP/Deposits (adj. for subs):

AUBANK: 98%
Kotak: 90%
HDFC: 58%
ICICI: 30%
IndusInd: 28%
IDFCFIRST: 28%
Axis: 25%
RBL: 19%
Federal: 7%
SBI: 6%

1/
For banks first assess the strength of the liability franchise. Not just CASA ratio but total deposits to total liabilities.

A bank can have a low deposit share in liabilities and a high CASA.

Wholesale funding is not good.

Granular deposits are good.

2/
Liability side determines the cost of funds. Lower your cost of fund the lower risk you need to take in lending for the same NIMs (profitability).

Some banks can’t even compete in prime Housing Loans (one of the safest segments) due to high cost of funds.

3/
Read 10 tweets
22 Sep
What’s your claim on alpha?

👇
I don’t know any endeavour where the difference between how easy something looks & how difficult it actually is, is as wide as in Investing (in the context of stock picking).

@passivefool says this is a “Blood Sport”. Apt.

2/10
People across the income/wealth spectrum feel it is easy to pick stocks & multiply their savings. They fall for every racket out there - High Risk-High Return/Small Caps Outperform/Divinations by Drawing Lines/Tips from TV Experts/Option Seminars/Leverage….

3/10
Read 10 tweets
9 Sep
When to sell:

👇
1/ The key to knowing when to sell is knowing ‘why you bought it in the first place'.

— Peter Lynch

Either the story has played out or the thesis has been violated or you have found something better.

Let’s examine the case where the stock is performing first.
2/ When you sell depends on what kind of investor you are.

The traits that makes you seek high margin of safety & deep value in your buy decisions will often make you sell early. Those decisions are driven by similar mindsets.
Read 21 tweets
5 Sep
How to track stocks/sectors:

(for the justifiably endangered retail active investor)

👇
1/ To have 10 stocks in your portfolio you probably have to track a 100 companies. These include competitiors of your holdings and potential inclusions.

Every company is telling a story not just about itself, but also about its peers, its customers, its vendors - the economy.
2/ Quaterly results are where you start. Maintain a sheet for each sector with important parameters (value drivers) for each stock and update it quarterly. Some website (@Tijori1)track some of this data, but maintain your own sheet. (“Quarterly Data Sheet”).

Sample:
Read 12 tweets
30 Aug
Few steps that can improve your returns:

(for the stubborn, amateur, active investor, who should rather be indexing)

👇
Don’t buy anything that you are not comfortable buying at least 5% of your portfolio.

This is not a return maximisation hack, it’s a risk mitigation one.

You will have higher thresholds for inclusions if you force yourself to buy at least 5%. You will be more selective.

1/
Have at least 10 & not more than 20 stocks in the portfolio (if your portfolio is >>> annual income).

There just aren’t enough clean companies available in India at good valuations that you understand. I struggle to get to even 10 & I have being doing this for a while now.

2/
Read 16 tweets

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