The most optimistic timeline: FDA EUA at EOM Nov to the earliest.
Rolling out to 65+ yo in general public in mid-Dec to the earliest.
2nd shot administered in early Jan to the earliest.
Recipient developing protective level of antibodies in mid Jan to the earliest.
Thus, most 65+ yos will still need to social distance for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
And i still expect covid cases to peak in late Dec and early Jan, at a scale many times bigger than we have today.
Announcing a vaccine does not save lives by itself.
It takes distribution (7-14days), two shots (14-28 days), then your immune response (7+ days) to get protected.
more sophisticated Ab cocktails are probably needed 1 year from now. There will be an ongoing evolution of new antibodies and new vaccines in response to new mutations.
We definitely need more on-going genetic sequencing of new COVID cases.
In the mean time, anything that makes COVID milder helps us get through this pre-vaccine, pre-Ab period:
People ask me how Chinese managed to control COVID for the last few months.
Well, people there have to run mobile tracing apps on their cell phone 24/7, which generates a pass for them to access any transportation, restaurants, malls, hotels etc.
A relative of mine recently did a sight-seeing trip in China, and ended up having to run 4 tracing app on her phone.
One from China CDC
One from the cdc of the province she lives
One from the cdc of the destination province
One from the Hubei CDC for her 5hr layover in Wuhan
If any lab-confirmed covid cases has came in close proximity of her, the tracing app will turn red automatically as soon as the lab report comes out. And anybody who contacted her would have the tracing app turning orange.
Fasten your seat belt. Covid19 is going to explode in the US from now through the new year.
The worst of all, i am hearing a lot of anecdotes of primary-care physicians in smaller cities/rural areas managing covid symptoms as if it is flu.
Very little thoughts being put into anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant.
When its-just-flu bros get treated by its-just-flu physicians,
That's what I call a shitshow.
Death lags inflections by 4-6 weeks. Right now is not the time to be complacent.
A lot of lab resources and personalized care are needed to navigate the 2nd-3rd week of covid (hyperinflammatory and hyper-coagulation phase). Just imagine that big post Thanksgiving and post Christmas flux of elderly patients rushing the hospitals at the same time
our CDC and WH are now pushing for “younger kids have lowest risk of spreading COVID19”, based on extrapolated data from spring and summer when schools are CLOSED.
In contrast, major cities in China, e.g. Shanghai, impose stricter quarantine rules for school kids for their upcoming holiday week:
non-student adult can travel domestically without restrictions, while school kids who leave their residence city have 14-day mandatory quarantine
Part of their risk management:
Adults can be quickly traced and notified with their cell phone QR systems, should an outbreak occur
School kids don’t have cell phones, are more prone to asymptomatic spread, and are packed in classrooms with poorer ventilation (higher risk)
An important question is what vaccines to take if you have a choice. Prof. Florian Krammer did an excellent review of major vaccines that are likely to be available soon here.