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A thread on John Bolton. This was inevitable. For many months Trump wanted to pivot to striking deals w/ America's enemies-- Taliban, Iran, DPRK, even Russia-- in the run up to the election. Pompeo was willing to accept this to shape it. Bolton was not & sought to sabotage it 1/9
Bolton survived the summer b/c it was the summer-- not much happening. But he was unlikely to survive long into the fall. We did not know how he wld leave-- some thought he wld cling on to run interference & Trump dislikes personal confrontation-- but it was unsustainable 2/9
How it happened is of great consequence. While everyone was waiting for Jim Mattis to speak out, Bolton has actually walked through that door. His tweet disputing Trump's account and his active outreach to media today suggest he will not take this lying down. 3/9
This sets the stage for a GOP civil war over foreign policy. If the challenge was coming from the center, the Tom Cottons and Lindsay Grahams of the world wld stand foursquare behind Trump. it is much harder if it is from Trump's "right" and on an issue they care about, Iran 4/9
You see the beginnings of that today with tweets from @tedcruz and other Republicans. As Trump is criticized, he will do what he always does-- go on the attack against Bolton and his allies, worsening the split. Meanwhile, full steam ahead on Rouhani, Taliban, etc. 5/9
On Bolton's replacement. Trump needs someone who will help implement his agenda but he has a choice. Go for a seasoned professional or a TV talk show personality (w/ Bolton these overlapped although the latter was more important). 6/9
If Trump sees his DPRK diplomacy as a model, he could choose someone like Steve Biegun, who Pompeo would presumably support too. His appointment would be widely welcomed by both parties. If Trump wants a personal advocate and pure Trumpian, he could go with ...7/9
..someone like Douglas McGregor of the Tucker Carlson show. I do not think he will go w/ Ric Grenell--who shares Bolton's views but lacks his bureaucratic experience/ skills. Trump also has a fixation w/ credentials. He needs his senior appointees to be seen as qualified. 8/9
That rules out the Gorkas of the world (McGregor would cross this bar for Trump because of his military experience). Bottom line: this is actually a big deal-- substantively and politically. 9/9
