Like anyone who watched, I thought Warren was ferocious and impressive last night but I also thought she fundamentally failed to do what she needed to do. She has been struggling in the polls because Sanders has taken more of the progressive market share of the vote. 1/8
Warren never had a plan for dealing with Sanders. She assumed he would eventually fall in the polls and she would scoop up his supporters. She had toyed with drawing contrasts in the summer of 2018 (when she said she was a capitalist, not a socialist). 2/8
This was a great frame. She could have embraced it, avoided M4A and be positioned now as an acceptable more electable compromise to Sanders. Instead, she abandoned this frame once the campaign started and never allowed any gap between her and Sanders. 3/8
On one occasion she was asked, what are some policy differences between her and Sanders and she refused to answer saying they are good friends. When she finally took him on it was on something personal, not policy-- what was said in the conversation between them. 4/8
Sanders of course did not fall. He rose to be the front runner and eclipsed Warren. He also faces charges that he is not electable but it has not held him back in the primary. Instead of recognizing that she needs to challenge him, Warren's team came up with..5/8
...every other conceivable explanation for why she was in trouble. Last night she finally tried to draw some contrasts with Sanders, resurrecting the capitalist who wants reform frame but it was surely too little too late. Her devastating blows against Bloomberg...6/8
...could persuade some voters to go for her but if you dislike Bloomberg you could just as easily go for Sanders. As likely is that Bloomberg's fall could help Biden who has suffered most from his rise. 7/8
Warren was in her comfort zone last night-- hammering billionaires-- but she allowed her main challenger to escape. If it was deliberate it makes me think she might be running to be Sanders' Veep. Fin
