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7 tweets,
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War with Iran is worryingly possible but I think Trump firing Bolton is more probable.
Trump has always distrusted Bolton on military intervention. Him behaving was a condition of his hire. Bolton overstepped early on w/ his Libya model comment on North Korea and was almost pushed out then. After a spell in the cold he was allowed back. 2/7
Trump repeatedly talks about Bolton as a hawk. He told one G7 leader point blank: “Bolton wants a war with Iran; I do not”. He made fun of Bolton wanting to invade everywhere in front of another leader. This is now coming to a head. 3/7
Pompeo’s role is interesting here. He is a hawk but his core belief is never diverge from Trump. Hence the stories that he is frustrated w/ Bolton. Meanwhile in private Bolton is scathing about Pompeo saying he has been captured by State. 4/7
Pompeo has many limitations but he is the ultimate bureaucratic infighter in Trump world. Add to the mix the Fox News crowd — Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingram— complaining about a possible war. We can be sure they are whispering in Trump’s ear. 5/7
Put all this together and I think Bolton is vulnerable. Yes, as WaPo reporters have found Trump’s frustration is lower than w/ HR or TRex but it is real. So Bolton is on thin ice. He is also there for over a year— the normal shelf life in Trump world. 6/7
Ed note: Stories in this thread are all from sources I trust. 7/7
