Very valid points made by you. In the class, the example is a bit more elaborate. For example, I include "hafta" as a necessary expense. Now let me try to address your concerns.
In the original example the street vendor has fixed assets of 10k, inventory of 1k, margin over cost of 100%, and one day's revenue Rs 2k. Depreciation Rs 50. And Profit was Rs 950. Annual profit assuming 300 days of work was Rs 2.85 lacs. and the ROCE is an astonishing 2,590%
You said I did not count the salary of the person. Fair enough. So let's fix it. Let's retire the sole proprietor and replace him with an employee who will run the business for him for a salary. Today, you can hire security guards for INR 10k a month, and they have night duties.
Let's assume the employee hired get paid 10K a month or 120k a year. You can probably get one cheaper but let's go with 120k. That reduces the total profit to 165k for the year for the "equity investor" in this "company."
Compare profit of 165k with capital employed of 11k, and now we get a ROCE of 1,500%. Which is still astonishingly high. It's more than Unilever and Colgate's ROCE.
So now we have a business that earns an ROE (same as ROCE as there is no debt) of 1,500%. Now, some folks who are accustomed to think that all high ROE businesses deserve premium valuation, say that this business should get a multiple of at least 20x.
Multiply 165k with 20, and we get a valuation of Rs 33 friggin lacs. But the capital employed is 11k. So we are now valuing this "fantastic" business for 300 times book value.
THIS was the point I was making. That there are all sorts of "wonderful" businesses with insanely high ROCE and ROE. Still, they do not deserve premium valuation unless there is growth, AND there are significant entry barriers.
The valuation in such cases should be anchored to asset value and not earnings. But still, let's go with earnings for a bit and speculate as to what multiple to give to such a "wonderful" business.
If we give a multiple of 10x, we get a value of 16.5 lacs. Which is 150 times book value. At 5x multiple, we get a value of 75 times book.
My question is: If it's easy for almost anyone to get into this business by investing just 11k, why should a rational person pay 75 times book for it? And if the answer is that he shouldn't, then, it means that this "fantastic" business with 1,500% ROE is worth < 5 times earnings
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One student in my Forensic Accounting course wrote about manipulation in many large companies and how it pushes the retail investor into the corner. My (slightly edited) response:
All investing carries risk. Equity investing is no different. But look at the world around you. If you really want to compound your capital and beat inflation and make some real money, you have to invest in equities - which includes owning 100% of your own business by the way.
Yes, you will lose money because of misgovernance. But that does not mean that everyone is a crook. So you have to find ways to avoid getting stuck in businesses with governance issues. And even if you exercise all caution, you will still not be immune.
At one point during the talk, Neeraj showed an example when he deliberately asked a dumb question from the management of a company he was working on. Immediately I could relate this to Detective Columbo. See this: quora.com/How-has-the-Co…
One answer is that company engages in hedging by using derivatives as a legitimate business decision and claims the hedging cost as a tax-deductible expense.
I don’t think losses if any resulting from speculative trades using derivatives will be allowed as a tax-deductible expense.
One, there was pent up demand in Q2 because of shutdown in Q1. So earnings which would have occurred in Q1 moved to Q2. This is temporary.
Two, many costs were not incurred in Q2 or the money spent on them was much lower than what was spent in Q2 of the previous year. For example, travel and advertising and rents etc. Some of these cost savings may endure. Others won’t.
Power doesn’t always corrupt, and you can see it in the case of, for example, Al Smith or Sam Rayburn. There, power cleanses.
But what power always does is reveal, because when you’re climbing, you have to conceal from people what it is you’re really willing to do, what it is you want to do.
But once you get enough power, once you’re there, where you wanted to be all along, then you can see what the protagonist wanted to do all along, because now he’s doing it.
We know the total capex. We can get it from the fixed asset schedule in the balance sheet. We can also get it from the cash flow statement as net investment in fixed assets.
We should do this over a BLOCK of years and not just one year because one-year data has noise. Also, why should the time taken by a planet to circle the sun synchronize precisely for time taken for business actions to pay off? (Buffett)