Daily new cases (smoothed) appears to have levelled out just under 50K. Ditto for R[t] at 0.97, which is just a shade under 1.
Looks like steady state till rollout of vaccine or everyone susceptible in the country gets infected, whichever occurs earlier.
Long tail visible clearly in th break from expected shape in #4.
The problem with a daily count this size is that things could rapidly blow up all over again, if people stop or are casual about masking up and distancing.
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The heuristic employed is that a higher test positivity indicates a higher count of missed infections, which makes sense. If testing were increasing effectively to capture new infections as they arise, positivity should decline.
Worked up the month ahead forecasts for Daily New Cases in r/o India and the states, using forecastHybrid in R. Largely as an exercise to see what the package does/can do.
Growth appears to persist, albeit further slowed down.
To be read as indicative only. 1/7
Rise in daily cases likely to persist for AP, AS ad BR with levelling off for CH.
2/7
Growth to persist steadily for GJ while declining for DL and GA (both expect mild rise in Daily New Cases level) and levelling off for CT