#Covid19India

Daily new cases (smoothed) appears to have levelled out just under 50K. Ditto for R[t] at 0.97, which is just a shade under 1.

Looks like steady state till rollout of vaccine or everyone susceptible in the country gets infected, whichever occurs earlier.
Long tail visible clearly in th break from expected shape in #4.

The problem with a daily count this size is that things could rapidly blow up all over again, if people stop or are casual about masking up and distancing.

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More from @UntergrundmannG

11 Nov
Experimenting a bit with lights on a greyscale render ...

#Mandelbulb3D #fractals
Developed it to this ...

#MandelBulb3D #fractals
Which further led to these two ...

#MandelBulb3D #fractals
Read 8 tweets
13 Jul
#Covid19India

Checking in on the hybridForecast I'd done eleven days back, with the daily new case counts ...

We're currently at day 123 on the timeline. 25K/day was estimated by end of July. We're already past that.

+
Expected | Current Actuals

AP: ~ 800 | 1700
AS: ~ 1000 | 650
BR: ~ 400 | 850
CH: ~ 5 | 12
+

CT: ~ 75 | 135
DL: ~ 2500 | 1750
GA: ~ 75 | 100
GJ: ~ 700 | 875
+

Read 15 tweets
11 Jul
#Covid19India

The heuristic employed is that a higher test positivity indicates a higher count of missed infections, which makes sense. If testing were increasing effectively to capture new infections as they arise, positivity should decline.

+
#Covid19India

Extending the same method to the testing/daily case reports for the States of India ...

Daily Test Capture | Estimated True Cases

AP: 1500 | 3500
AS: 750 | 2000
BR: 600 | 1800
CT: 150 | 170 (Last testing data NA)

+
DL: 2000 | 30000
GA: 110 | 200
GJ: 850 | 6500
HP: 30 | 40 (Last testing data NA)

+
Read 9 tweets
10 Jul
#Covid19India: State of the States:
Daily Deaths | New Cases | Recoveries | R[t]

AN: 0 | 6 | 4 | R[t] Not Computed
+
Daily Deaths | New Cases | Recoveries | R[t]

AP: 14 | 1300 | 1100 | >> 1.00
+
Daily Deaths | New Cases | Recoveries | R[t]

AR: 0 | 12 | 9 | < 1.00
+
Read 32 tweets
5 Jul
#Covid19India: State of the States

*Pay attention to the level of Recoveries/Day VS New Cases/Day to inform your judgement.*

Current: New Cases | Deaths | Recoveries (Per Day)
AP: 800 | 10 | 350
+
Current: New Cases | Deaths | Recoveries (Per Day)
AS: 750 | 1 | 300
+
Current: New Cases | Deaths | Recoveries (Per Day)
BR: 400 | 5 | 225
+
Read 25 tweets
2 Jul
#Covid19India

Worked up the month ahead forecasts for Daily New Cases in r/o India and the states, using forecastHybrid in R. Largely as an exercise to see what the package does/can do.

Growth appears to persist, albeit further slowed down.

To be read as indicative only.
1/7
Rise in daily cases likely to persist for AP, AS ad BR with levelling off for CH.

2/7
Growth to persist steadily for GJ while declining for DL and GA (both expect mild rise in Daily New Cases level) and levelling off for CT

3/7
Read 7 tweets

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