The U.S. and U.K. moved this week to make climate-related financial risks the norm. All businesses everywhere should get ready to do the same.
THREAD: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
1/ In its latest Financial Stability Report, the @federalreserve specifically calls out climate change as a near-term risk to the financial system. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Climate change, it concludes, “increases the likelihood of dislocations and disruptions in the economy” and “is likely to increase financial shocks and financial system vulnerabilities that could further amplify these shocks.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Acute hazards like “storms, floods, droughts, or wildfires, can quickly alter, or reveal new information about, future economic conditions or the value of real or financial assets". Here's the @federalreserve diagram: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
4/ Chronic hazards, like slowly rising sea levels, seem at first to be easier to price—but “in the presence of rapid shifts in public perceptions of risk,” chronic hazards “have the potential to produce similar abrupt repricing events.” Diagram, again: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
5/ The Fed concludes by saying that it expects banks “have systems in place that appropriately identify, measure, control, and monitor all of their material risks, which for many banks are likely to extend to climate risks.”
6/ Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, took that one giant step further by, among other things, mandating that all major U.K. companies and financial institutions disclose their climate risk by 2025. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7/ That disclosure needs to align with the guidance set by the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures by 2025 @FSB_TCFDbloomberg.com/news/articles/…
8/ By 2022, the U.K. expects 100% of “premium listed companies” such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell, to have TCFD-aligned climate risk disclosures. By 2022, it expects 94% disclosure from bank and building societies, and 89% disclosure from insurers. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
9/ Climate risk disclosure might seem like a somewhat distant and certainly very technical subset of financial market regulation. But as the Fed suggests, climate risk is both here and now, and it has present-day implications for business. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
11/ @hmtreasury is taking the product of measuring and understanding climate risk and making it a requirement for the U.K.'s most important businesses and financial institutions. Could the U.S. do the same? bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
12/ The incoming administration can take a whole-government approach, even if it may not have the Senate control to pass its climate measures into law. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
13/ That approach could include following the U.K.'s lead, with the Securities and Exchange Commission requiring disclosure of climate risks. That, and the Fed's guidance, could lead to less risky, climate-positive business and investment strategies. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… /end
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It's here - @BloombergNEF's 2020 New Energy Outlook. Peak energy emissions, peak oil demand, peak coal demand, 56% wind and solar power in 2050, hydrogen pathways, and $78-130 trillion (with a T) in investment 2020-50. Highlights: about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…#BNEFNEO THREAD:
1/ @BloombergNEF#BNEFNEO 2020: In our core Economic Transition Scenario, global carbon emissions from energy use drop 8% in 2020 and now appear to have peaked in 2019. Covid subtracted 2.5 years of emissions' we're on track for 3.3 degrees of warming about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…
2/ @BloombergNEF#BNEFNEO 2020: Emissions from all transport peak in 2033, two years after the road segment, as a result of ongoing growth in aviation and shipping. Building emissions grows at 0.7% year-on-year from 9% of emissions in 2019 to 14% in 2050. about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…
2/ @FAO tracks production of 18 meats including camel, guinea fowl, and wild game, but only three are significant in global volume: beef, pork, and chicken; they're 302 of 340 million tons of annual production bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Pork and chicken production are growing at a greater rate than beef production. Let's look at them in relative terms. The top three are remarkably steady for six decades (85 to 88% of total) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It was not until 1955 that the U.S. had more tractors than horses and mules working on farms. A brief thread (from this awesome paper) on what mechanization did for U.S. agriculture. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
The tractor:
Replaced about 23 million draft animals, and expanded the draft-power on farms more than four-fold. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
The tractor:
Increased the effective cropland base by 79 million acres. This represented an increase of about 30%and was equal to 2/3 of the total cropland harvested in 1920 in the territory of the area of the Louisiana Purchase. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
An India power challenge: how to get 400 megawatts of zero-carbon power to generate 80% of the time?
The answer: round-the-clock renewables, and batteries, and a few major changes in approach. It's another view of electricity's future, today. bloomberg.com/authors/AQDSs6… THREAD
India is the world’s biggest market for renewable energy auctions, in which wind and solar project developers compete to offer the lowest possible prices for zero-carbon power. In May, India added a twist: a call for “round-the-clock” renewable power. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The winning bid was higher than the going rates for wind and solar in previous auctions.
I've spent a month+ thinking on energy in an age of abundance, pandemic-induced or not. Today's math is different from the old math, be it in expected sector return on capital to structural readiness for negative prices. Hint: one sector comes out looking better-prepared.
1/ Oil majors tightening their belt - inevitable, given current market; not great for any energy source, given that the majors are considerable asset and corporate investors in clean energy bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Integrated oil company returns on equity: Far from the heady days of the early 2000s, and trending back down again bloomberg.com/news/articles/…